Intelligence Report        
# 2008-11-18

“The highest purpose of Intelligence is to avert conflict and preserve peace. The greatest Intelligence achievements are the wars that do not happen, the headlines that are not made, and the lives that are not lost.”


SUMMARY

Betting On Chavez to Buy Lots of Guns
Venezuela seeks military power
Turning Oil into Bullets
How Obama can win trust
US missile chief to Obama: anti-missile system 'is workable'
Dogs of War: Contractors and Obama
U.S. spy agencies spent $47.5 billion in fiscal 2008
How To Fight Al Qaeda Now
USS Kearsarge Demonstrates Navy ‘Soft Power’ Capabilities
Pentagon on guard for White House wartime transition
Russian cops pack new heat
Terrorist 'tweets'? US Army warns of Twitter dangers
Government urged to focus on resilience in homeland security

CONTENT


Betting On Chavez to Buy Lots of Guns

Venezuela has bought $4.4 billion worth of weapons from Russia over the past four years. And despite the collapsing global price of oil, Venezuela's weapons planning top general has announced it is going to buy lots more. "We will continue buying weaponry in Russia, China and Belarus in future years to ensure the defense of our territory and oil reserves from countries like the United States," Gen. Jesus Gonzalez, director of weapons purchases for the Venezuelan armed forces, said during a visit to Mexico last week, RIA Novosti. Gonzalez claimed the enormous arms buildup, which would make Venezuela by far the most powerful military power in Latin America and the Caribbean, and a potential threat to its neighbors, was essential because the country faced the threat of a U.S. invasion. "I have no doubt that the Americans want to come here in search of oil, and we must be ready to face them. If you want peace, prepare for war," Gonzalez stated, according to the report. "That is why we asked for help from such countries as Russia and China. Russia is our friend, who has helped us in difficult times."RIA Novosti noted that from 2005 to 2007 Venezuela's fiercely anti-American President Hugo Chavez had approved 12 contracts with Russia that had a cumulative value of $4.4 billion.

The agreements covered huge supplies of state-of-the-art air superiority fighter aircraft, a fleet of helicopters that would dramatically boost the mobility and reach of the Venezuelan army, and even an agreement to build a new factory to manufacture under license Kalashnikov AK-103 automatic assault rifles. In addition to those $4.4 billion of weapons purchases, in September Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin approved a further $1 billion loan with which Chavez is purchasing Russia's short-range but highly advanced TOR-M1 air defense systems, Igla-S portable SAM systems, Ilyushin Il-78 aerial tankers and Ilyushin Il-76 military cargo aircraft. Some military analysts believe the Tor-M1 may have an up to 80 percent success rate in shooting down the U.S. Air Force's veteran subsonic Tomahawk missiles. "During the upcoming visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Venezuela in November this year we may finalize the details of deals on the procurement of (Russian) BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles and T-72 tanks," Gonzalez said.  His comments came after the Russian air force in September successfully flew two supersonic, swing-wing Tupolev Tu-160 White Swans -- NATO designation Blackjack) -- all the way to Venezuela, where their crews spent a week being feted by Chavez and flying long-duration patrols over the Caribbean Sea.

 The Tu-160 Blackjack, with a top speed of 1,380 mph at sea level and a 99,000-pound bomb load or ordnance capacity, is the most advanced bomber in the world. It has twice the speed and weapons-carrying capacity of a B-2 Stealth bomber and can carry 12 KH-55 air-launched cruise missiles -- NATO designation AS-15 Kent -- each of which has a range of 2,000 miles. The announcement of the Blackjack patrols alarmed the U.S. government. In August Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned that Washington looked with disfavor on the Russian air force using the Tu-160 Blackjacks to carry out their training and test flights so close to the United States. She warned the Kremlin that it was conducting a "dangerous game."

 
Venezuela seeks military power

Venezuela will have Latin America's largest armed forces in terms of firepower by 2013, if the country's oil revenues remain high in coming years. President Hugo Chavez has purchased and placed firm orders for close to $6 billion in Russian weapons since 2005, but he is also shopping for weapons in China, Belarus, Spain, France and Iran. The Venezuelan Defense Ministry's modernization plans call for spending $30 billion between 2007 and 2017 to acquire advanced weapons systems and other military equipment. The ministry's defense procurement plan includes more attack helicopters and fighters, diesel submarines, missile frigates, air defense missiles, battle tanks, mobile howitzers, rocket launchers, armored troop carriers, and communications and radar systems. The bulk of these arms purchases will be contracted with Russian firms, say defense procurement officials. These planned arms purchases are part of a 10-year national security program to restructure and professionalize the Bolivarian Armed Force of Venezuela after more than two decades of government neglect.

But Chavez says the weapons also are needed to defend Venezuela against U.S. military aggression. Venezuela's defense modernization plan is being carried out in several stages. The overall pace of implementation depends on the Chavez government's fiscal revenues from oil exports. However, the infantry and air force weapons Chavez has purchased from Russia since 2005 already are changing the balance of military power in South America, forcing neighboring countries like Brazil and Colombia to rethink their own defense procurement plans. The first major Russian arms supply contract signed by Chavez in 2005 was for 100,000 AK-103 and AK-104 assault rifles for Venezuela's army. The AK rifles will replace about 120,000 Belgian-designed FAL 7.62mm assault rifles that have been in use for more than 40 years.

Russia also agreed to create a joint venture with CAVIM, the Venezuelan state-owned military arms and munitions industry, to build two factories in the city of Maracay to manufacture AK 104/104 rifles and munitions. Venezuelan Defense Ministry officials say the factories will be capable of producing between 25,000 and 50,000 rifles annually. Chavez said in 2006 that Venezuela "needs at least 1 million assault rifles" to defend against a U.S. military invasion. Venezuela's Defense Ministry also has signed a contract to purchase 5,000 Dragunov SVD sniper rifles. The old FAL rifles will not be retired from service. Instead, the ministry plans to redeploy most of the FAL rifles to civilian reservists with the recently created Bolivarian National Reserve, which has more than 300,000 members officially and operates under the direct command of Chavez.

Venezuela's government to date also has purchased and placed firm orders for 151 Russian attack helicopters, late-model fighters and transport aircraft. At least 79 Russian combat helicopters have been purchased through August 2008, including 40 Mi-17V5s (NATO designation Hip), 13 Mi-26Ts (NATO designation Halo), 12 to 14 Mi-35Ms (NATO designation Hind) and 10 to 12 Mi-28NEhs (NATO designation Havoc or Night Hunter). All of these helicopters will be deployed in Venezuela by mid-2009.

Turning Oil into Bullets

Alongside their military deals, the People's Republic of China and the South American nations of Venezuela and Brazil have been cooperating extensively in the oil industry. In May 2008 the Venezuelan News Press reported that China Petrochemical Corp., or Sinopec, was signing a billion-dollar contract with Venezuela's state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela -- PDVSA. The contract provides for the joint establishment of a large refinery in China's southern province of Guangdong. In 2007 Sinopec and Petroleos de Venezuela announced they would jointly invest $10 billion to develop Venezuela's Orinoco oil field. During his visit to China in 2006, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez already signed an oil contract worth $11 billion with the Beijing government. It was after this visit that Chavez made the surprise announcement that he wanted to import J-10A fighters from China. In 2007 China imported from Venezuela around 4 million tons of crude oil. Though this is not a huge quantity, it is part of China's strategy to increase cooperation with Latin American countries and diversify its sources of crude oil. China already has obtained the rights to develop 15 oil fields in Venezuela.

Another South American country with which China has extensive dealings is Brazil. In fact, Brazil is China's key supplier of remote-control satellites and digital photographic satellite technologies. The Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer and China's Harbin Aircraft Co. have a joint venture to manufacture ERJ-145 feeder passenger aircraft, with Brazil owning a 51 percent share in the company. The plane incorporates Brazilian technologies, some of which are being applied in the research and development of the Chinese People's Liberation Army air force's airborne early warning and control platform. In return, the Brazilian navy hopes to obtain the technology to build conventional and nuclear submarines. Brazil is currently discussing this with China. The two countries have been cooperating in the space industry for 20 years. In 1988 they began joint development of an Earth surveillance satellite; to date they have launched three such satellites. In September 2007 China and Brazil launched the 02B high-resolution Earth resources satellite.

Brazil has provided China with technology obtained from Western countries, especially French digital image transmission technology, which is responsible for the greatly improved resolution of the 02B satellite. On the other hand, Brazil has obtained from China certain satellite and rocket technologies. In 2004 China began angling for Brazil's oil and gas resources; Sinopec signed a memorandum of understanding with Brazil to build the country's longest natural gas pipeline. In 2004 Brazil exported to China only 1 million tons of crude oil, but in 2007 the total increased abruptly to 2.3 million tons. An internal Chinese government document on the country's energy plans discusses the strategic importance of Brazil for China, since it is the 15th largest oil-producing country in the world.
 

How Obama can win trust

If the combined forces of the U.S. military were a state, its 2.2 million residents would have voted strongly in favor of Sen. John McCain in last week’s election — giving him five votes, the same as Nevada, in the Electoral College. Those votes would not have swung an election in which Sen. Barack Obama won a clear majority in both the popular vote and the Electoral College. But more than any so-called “red state,” the military must now turn-to and salute its new commander in chief. There is no question that service members will follow their next president. Honoring the chain of command, adherence to the Constitution and obeying orders are enduring principles of military service.

 But for Obama, who promised those who didn’t support him on election night, “I will be your president, too,” it will take a determined and steady effort to earn the trust and respect of a military suspicious of his motives and his politics. In a Military Times interview last summer, he acknowledged as much: “Precisely because I have not served in uniform, I am somebody who strongly believes I have to earn the trust of men and women in uniform.”

 President-elect Obama, here’s how you can do that:

• Choose a wise and strong defense secretary. Leadership starts at the top. The next defense secretary must be knowledgeable, experienced and willing to listen to opinions different from his own. He must have your ear and your respect, and the will to make unpopular decisions when necessary.

 • Don’t quit fighting. The surge did make a difference in Iraq, and progress continues. Everyone wants to bring the troops home — but it’s essential to focus more on achieving lasting peace than on sticking to a notional schedule for how fast we can withdraw. Meanwhile, U.S. commanders in Afghanistan are asking for and getting more troops. But you must continue to press NATO for more troops for combat missions and to train Afghan security forces. And work closely with Gen. David Petraeus, now head of Central Command, to implement the best strategy for success.

 • Bolster the national will. A president must rally the nation behind our military efforts overseas. The Bush administration fell short on this obligation. You must do better.

 • Love your troops. As president, you hold their lives in your hands. Honor them. Respect them. They didn’t have to serve their country; they volunteered. Pay them what they’re worth, and make sure you care for them after they come home and after they hang up their uniforms.

 • Listen to your generals. They are your military experts. You can benefit from their experience and collective wisdom.

 • Promote the best and brightest. Working through your defense secretary, you owe it to your troops to ensure that the most talented officers are both heard and promoted, and that different perspectives are given voice. Diversity of opinion is essential to good debate, debate is essential to innovation — and our military thrives on innovation.

 • Save the social engineering experiments for later. The last Democrat in the White House squandered his first months as commander in chief, alienating troops by clashing with Congress and the Joint Chiefs over opening the military to gays, which led to the compromise “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy. However much you may wish to fulfill your pledge to change that law, don’t rush. Doing so now will create a distraction that will undermine your leadership and more immediate goals. Solve Iraq and Afghanistan first.

 
US missile chief to Obama: anti-missile system 'is workable'

The Pentagon's missile defense chief Trey Obering said Wednesday he looked forward to reporting to Barack Obama that the US anti-missile system is "workable," and to setting the president-elect's mind at ease. The anti-missile defense system -- which preliminary tests have shown is capable of shooting down ballistic missiles -- "is workable," Obering, who heads the Missile Defense Agency, told reporters by teleconference. "Our testing has shown not only can we hit a bullet with a bullet, we can hit a spot on a bullet with a bullet," the lieutenant general added. After the US presidential election on November 4, Obama's foreign policy advisor Dennis McDonough said Obama "made no committment" on US plans to install a missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, under an August 14 agreement signed by President George W. Bush's administration. "His position is, as it was throughout the campaign, that he supports deploying a missile defense system when the technology is proved to be workable," McDonough said.

 Obering said he and colleagues "are standing by to answer questions from (Obama's) transition team," which is expected to visit the Pentagon in the next few days. "Our prime objective is going to be to educate them on what we have accomplished.... Those who have not been involved in this over the years... need to be updated," he added. Obering, who will resign his post at the end of November, warned that abandoning the missile shield in central Europe "would severely hurt our ability to protect our forces in that region." He also said timing was a vital issue. "We can't wait until we see the Iranians fly an ICBM," or intercontinental ballistic missile. The United States wants to base 10 interceptor missiles in Poland plus a radar facility in neighboring Czech Republic by 2011-2013 to complete a system already in place in the United States, Greenland and Britain

. Washington says the shield -- endorsed by NATO in February -- is aimed at fending off potential attacks by so-called "rogue states" such as Iran, and is in no way aimed at Russia. But Russia sees the system as a threat to its own security. On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow would abandon plans to deploy missiles on the EU's doorstep in Kaliningrad if the US scraps its plans to base part of the missile shield in Europe. Polish lawmakers have yet to ratify the US missile defense deal while the Czech government has called for a delay in a final vote on its radar agreements until Obama's inauguration on January 20.

 
Dogs of War: Contractors and Obama

In the wake of Barack Obama's election victory many American private military and security contractors are wondering what their future will be under President Obama. It is probably better than they imagine. Recall that at the beginning of the year inveterate PSC critic Jeremy Scahill blasted Obama for being too sympathetic toward contractors. He reported that a senior foreign policy adviser of Obama's said that if elected, Obama would not "rule out" using private security companies like Blackwater Worldwide in Iraq. The adviser also said Obama does not plan to sign on to legislation that seeks to ban the use of these forces in U.S. war zones by January 2009, when a new president will be sworn in. Instead Obama's campaign said he will focus on bringing accountability to these forces while increasing funding for the State Department's Bureau of Diplomatic Security, the agency that employs Blackwater and other private security contractors.

 After Obama takes office, his advisers will find that as an issue accountability just keeps marching on. For example, just consider some of the provisions in the Fiscal Year 2009 Defense Authorization Act. There are several sections that focus on private contractors. Section 321 calls for the Office of Federal Procurement Policy to establish a single consistent definition of the "inherently governmental" function that could be applied across federal agencies. Now creating a common definition is not an easy task. Federal departments and agencies, by law, annually do an inventory of their workforces to try to determine exactly that, in order to determine what can be outsourced. Still, the end result should be that positions that are critical, inherently governmental functions should not be outsourced. Thus, situations in which interrogators from a firm like CACI operate at a place like Abu Ghraib should become a historical memory.

 In fact, just to make it clear that it is still on Congress' mind, Section 1057 states that "the interrogation of enemy prisoners of war, civilian internees, retained persons, other detainees, terrorists, and criminals when captured, transferred, confined, or detained during or in the aftermath of hostilities is an inherently governmental function and cannot appropriately be transferred to private sector contractors." Another provision, Section 832, states that private security functions ordinarily should be performed by members of the Armed Forces; the relevant combatant command commander should determine whether the performance by a private security contractor is appropriate; and the Defense Department should have appropriate numbers of trained personnel to perform private security functions. Admittedly this provision is a sense of Congress, and not an actual requirement, but nevertheless could prove unsettling for the likes of Triple Canopy, DynCorp, Blackwater and a host of other firms.

 Section 841 requires the Office of the Federal Procurement Policy Administrator to review the Federal Acquisition Regulations to identify contracting methods, types and services that raise heightened concerns for potential personal and organizational conflicts of interest. This would be a useful provision, considering that most of the ethics safeguards that exist such as laudable but unenforceable codes of conducts promulgated by the trade association are oriented more toward ensuring operators in the field act properly, and not to prevent company officials from using their personal contacts to help win a contract. Section 843 requires the Pentagon to adopt an acquisition strategy for insurance required by the Defense Base Act, which minimizes the cost of such insurance to the Department of Defense and to defense contractors subject to it.

 This will make for an interesting contrast in approaches between the Defense and State departments. A congressional study found that, in regard to the DBA requirement to obtain insurance, three agencies -- the State Department, USAID and the Corps of Engineers -- conducted a competition to select an insurance carrier to offer this insurance at low rates to their contractors. Typically, insurers offering workers compensation pay out as much in claims and expenses as they take in through premiums. The carriers make their real money off investment returns they earn during the interval between when they receive premiums and pay claims and expenses. This was the experience of the State Department, USAID and the Corps of Engineers. In fact, the company that won these contracts, CNA, actually paid out 8 percent more in claims and expenses than it had received in premiums.

 But these contracts represent only 10 percent of the insurance market in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ninety percent of the Defense Base Act market is controlled by the Pentagon, and that experience has been completely different. Under the Pentagon approach, private contractors negotiate with private insurers but bill the taxpayers for the costs. This arrangement has been exceptionally lucrative for the private insurers and the contractors. Over the last five years the four largest private insurers made underwriting profits of nearly 40 percent. Section 854 requires mechanisms for ensuring that contractors are required to report offenses that are alleged to have been committed by or against contractor personnel to appropriate investigative authorities.

 Finally, Section 870 calls for the establishment of a government-wide Contingency Contracting Corps that shall "be available for deployment in responding to an emergency or major disaster, or a contingency operation, both within or outside the continental United States." This is overdue and desperately needed, as monitoring of military contracting has long been a scandal. The 2007 independent Commission on Army Acquisition and Program Management in Expeditionary Operations found significant failures in the Army's contracting and contract management. Among other things, it found contracting personnel received no on-the-job training until after they had been shipped out to war zones like Iraq and Afghanistan.

 The commission suggested improvements to the Army's contracting personnel, the reorganization of contracting in expeditionary operations and at home, training for contracting activities, and getting external assistance to ensure contracting efficiency. It also recommended that the Pentagon add up to 2,000 military and civilian contract officers, strengthen the Defense Contract Management Agency, overhaul its personnel system and reform its procurement procedures.

U.S. spy agencies spent $47.5 billion in fiscal 2008

Washington — U.S. spy agencies spent $47.5 billion in fiscal year 2008, $4 billion more than in the previous budget year, according to National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell. Steven Aftergood, who tracks intelligence spending for the Project on Government Secrecy, called the increase "big news." "A multibillion budget increase would be significant at any time," he said. "It's even more remarkable today coming after several years of sharp growth in intelligence spending." Congress in 2007 passed a law requiring intelligence spending to be made public, as the 9/11 Commission recommended. The Clinton administration voluntarily disclosed the intelligence budget in 1997 and 1998. It was $26.6 billion and $26.7 billion, respectively. But the budgets released a decade ago included additional military intelligence spending not counted in the total released, according to Aftergood.

Aftergood's organization, part of the Federation of American Scientists, unsuccessfully sued the federal government in 1999 to compel the Central Intelligence Agency director to release the budget annually. The annual national intelligence program budget includes money spent by 16 different intelligence entities, from the CIA to the FBI, Pentagon to Homeland Security Department. Around 80% of the intelligence budget is consumed by Defense Department intelligence units, including the National Security Agency and the National Reconnaissance Office, National Geospatial Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency.

How To Fight Al Qaeda Now

An ex-CIA analyst talks about the terrorists' power—and their vulnerabilities. Bruce Riedel was in the White House Situation Room on 9/11. For 30 years he was one of the CIA's senior analysts of the Middle East, rising to be a special assistant to the President on the National Security Council staff. Al-Qaeda’s “vulnerabilities are significant,” Bruce Riedel, former CIA analyst and author of The Search for al Qaeda, told Newsweek in an interview. “… its nihilistic resort to violence alienates most Muslims who do not see this as true to Islam.”

But “Al Qaeda’s anti-Western message gains traction from the belief, widespread among Muslims, that the U.S. doesn’t respect the Muslim world. So [we need] to use our diplomatic strength far more effectively and consistently than we have, to settle those issues of importance to Muslims.” Now he has written an analysis of Al Qaeda—and a critique of America's strategy in combating it. He outlined his concerns to NEWSWEEK's John Barry. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: Why this book now?

Bruce Riedel: I starting writing this book two years when I retired from CIA, because I think Al Qaeda is still the No. 1 threat to America; but there is still much that is misunderstood or not understood about the nature of that threat.

After seven years?

The Bush administration deliberately conflated the Al Qaeda threat with the problem posed by Saddam's Iraq. Then [they] deepened the confusion with the claim that Al Qaeda hated the United States because of our freedoms and our way of life. As [Osama] bin Ladin has said, if that were the case, Al Qaeda would have attacked Sweden. So what is it that motivates AQ and the terrorists that belong to it? A sense that the Islamic world has been under systematic attack by the West for the last century, and that in order to defend itself from Western attack, the Islamic world has to take the war to the United States and its allies in order to drag them into quagmires that will bleed them until they finally admit defeat and leave Islamic world.

By that analysis, Iraq and now Afghanistan suggest Al Qaeda isn ' t doing badly.

Oh, from their standpoint they think they are doing quite well. The world economic financial crisis we are going through now is exactly what Osama bin Ladin predicted would happen when the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan began.

Really?

Yes, he warned that the "bleeding wars"—as Al Qaeda refers to them—were going to produce economic chaos in the West. And he pointed specifically to the home-mortgage bubble in the United States. For this he was parodied by many here at the time.

So we ' ve underestimated bin Ladin?

Osama bin Ladin is very bright, however retrograde his analysis. I think it's an evil genius: clever and extraordinarily ruthless, willing to kill thousands to achieve his objective. There is no doubt in my mind that if Al Qaeda could get a nuclear weapon or some other weapon of mass destruction, it would use it. For them, an end has long justified the means.

British government sees room for minimal Islamic law

London — The British government has ruled that some aspects of Islamic sharia law can be accepted into the country's legal framework, provided they comply with standard practices of jurisprudence. Bridget Prentice, a justice minister in Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government, told Parliament that family courts in England and Wales could "rubber stamp" sharia decisions if they decide the Islamic rulings are fair. Sharia is a set of principles governing the lives of Muslims, 1.6 million of whom live in Britain, and has occasionally come into conflict with traditional British law.

But Prentice said a sharia decision dealing with money or children could be submitted in the form of a consent order that a formal court could consider. "This," she said, "allows English judges to scrutinize it to ensure that it complies with English legal tenets," and likewise in Wales, and that if they rule it is fair, it would constitute a legal contract. Earlier this year, Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams fueled the debate over Muslim law in Britain when he suggested that some aspects of sharia incorporated into civil law seemed "unavoidable" in the future.

But the government's major opposition, the Conservative Party, argues that the proposal smacks of setting up a parallel legal system that does not belong in Britain. "There can be no place for parallel legal systems in our country," said Conservative justice spokesman Nick Herbert. "It is right that agreements decided privately in family cases must be authorized by a judge applying English law if they are to have any legal effect."

USS Kearsarge Demonstrates Navy ‘Soft Power’ Capabilities

Washington – In what could serve as the model for the Navy’s “soft power” efforts in the future, the USS Kearsarge has cruised the Atlantic for the past few months delivering disaster relief and humanitarian aid to a handful of countries in that region. The fact that it is a 40-ton U.S. military expeditionary strike group flagship delivering supplies and medical, dental and veterinary care makes no difference to those on the receiving end in these impoverished countries, the mission commander for Kearsarge's humanitarian and civic assistance mission said. “The host nation doesn't care what the number is, or the color [of the ship],” said Navy Capt. Frank Ponds, commander of the mission dubbed “Continuing Promise.” “All [it] cares about is that this ship is bringing a critical capability by sea, air and shore to their citizens. And you know what? That's all we care about. We are no threat to any host nation down here, because we are here on a humanitarian assistance mission.”

Speaking to a group of bloggers yesterday via conference call from the ship, Ponds called the Kearsarge “the perfect platform” for carrying out the mission. In fact, the same features that are designed into the ship that allow it to deliver critical military supplies, troops and equipment ashore are the same capabilities that make it right for the job of delivering humanitarian aid and disaster relief, he said. In its combat mission, the 844-foot Kearsarge can transport and land ashore troops, tanks, trucks, artillery, ammunition and other supplies necessary to support an assault. And the ship’s medical capabilities are second only to the USNS hospital ships Comfort and Mercy, Ponds said. The Kearsarge can support up to 600 patients while still providing routine care to crewmembers and embarked troops.

Its facilities include four main and two emergency operating rooms, four dental operating rooms, X-ray facilities, a blood bank, laboratories and intensive-care ward facilities. Ponds said the primary purpose of the mission is to reinforce security, stability and prosperity within the region, but that it also provides valuable training for the ship’s crew. The crew is made up of members of all branches of service, Ponds said. The mission allows development of interagency and international relationships, as the crew works closely with other U.S. federal agencies and international aid groups. Ponds said the crew works “shoulder to shoulder and scalpel to scalpel” with physicians and experts from the Netherlands, Canada, Brazil and France. “So this has been a true interagency, joint, multinational operation delivering much-needed services … in the Central America, South America and Caribbean region,” Ponds said.

The ship is now docked off the shores of Trinidad and Tobago and has about another five weeks left before it heads to its home port in Norfolk, Va. In the first three countries Kearsarge visited -- Nicaragua, Colombia and the Dominican Republic -- the ship’s medical teams screened more than 107,000 patients, treating more than 34,000 patients, and dispensed 64,000 pharmaceuticals, Ponds said. Doctors have performed 104 medical procedures on the ship, and they likely will perform another 60 before it leaves Trinidad and Tobago. The crew also delivered thousands of pairs of glasses, and its veterinary teams treated more than 4,000 animals, he said.

The ship was pulled off its stop in Colombia three days early to respond to disaster relief requests by Haiti that felt the brunt of hurricanes Hannah, Ike and Gustav. In 18 days, the ship’s crew delivered 3.3 million pounds of relief supplies and more than 30,000 gallons of water. Medical teams provided assessments of the storm-ravaged areas, and the civil engineers assessed critical infrastructure needed to deliver aid by roads, Ponds said. “What we did in Haiti was no small feat, only because we were able to do a sea-based mission with a minimum footprint ashore, delivering some much-needed supplies to the folks in Haiti,” he said. “We took to Haiti an invaluable asset in the form of lift, aviation and service lift, to those remote areas that could not be normally accessible by the roadways.”

Ponds said the military staff has learned a lot from this mission and has adjusted its operations with each lesson. “It's been about humbling ourselves to deliver what they think that they need, not what we think that they need, and working with them to deliver these critical capabilities,” Ponds said. Many times, as the crews work to rebuild schools, clinics and other infrastructure, they find themselves partnering more, and taking the lead less, depending on the capabilities of the host nation. “We've come away with some valuable lessons learned,” Ponds said. “And we've used those lessons in stride to adjust our mission as we have gone along.” The Kearsarge is the second Navy amphibious ship to deploy to Latin America and the Caribbean this year for the "Continuing Promise" mission. The USS Boxer wrapped up the first phase in June after visiting three countries.

Pentagon on guard for White House wartime transition

The Pentagon has been preparing for months for the first wartime change of presidents in 40 years, a period of heightened vulnerability that, if history is a guide, US adversaries will try to exploit. "We will all be on heightened alert given that historically our enemies have tried to take advantage of that time around an election, either before of after," Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, told AFP. After the November 4 elections, the baton will be handed to the incoming administration in an awkward transition that typically continues for months after the swearing-in of a new president on January 20. History overflows with examples of major incidents in the period before and after the elections, as evidenced by a chronology drawn up by the Joint Staff. Three months after his arrival in the White House, John Kennedy was beset by the Bay of Pigs fiasco, which set in motion a confrontation with Havana that led to the Cuban missile crisis the following year.

The fall of Saigon occurred eight months after Gerald Ford assumed the presidency. Ronald Reagan was shot in an assassination attempt just weeks after he took office. Only a month after Bill Clinton was sworn in, a bomb struck the World Trade Center in New York, and eight months into George W. Bush's presidency hijacked airliners toppled the twin towers and struck the Pentagon. With the United States engaged in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the need for detailed preparations may be even more critical this time. "It takes an administration, any administration, a good six months to a year to get their feet on the ground and really be running," Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned earlier this month. For months, Mullen has had a team of about a dozen people on the Joint Staff actively focused on the issues raised by the transition. "The idea is to keep the military in a state of heightened awareness as we move through this vulnerable time," said Captain John Kirby, a spokesman for Mullen.

Their mission: "Make sure the military stays ready for any contingency and to actually prevent, to the degree we can, that kind of a crisis," Kirby said. Their job also it is to "make sure that the chairman is prepared to give his best military advice to the next president on the top security issues on which the administration needs to focus," he said. Among the hottest issues is a new strategy now being devised for Afghanistan and Pakistan, the changing situation in Iraq, and the impact of the financial crisis on the US defense budget, said a senior military officer, who asked not to be identified. Defense Secretary Robert Gates also is intent on make sure the transition goes as smoothly as possible. "He has made it clear that everybody and anybody in this building who can help in that effort must," said Morrell.

The arrival of a new administration will bring an unsettling whirl of nominations to key positions in the Pentagon and elsewhere. "Gates wants to figure out a way for us to get the incoming team security clearances as quickly as possible to the key members so that they can even begin sitting in on his conversations with the commanders," Morrell said. Meanwhile, the Pentagon chief has asked his staff to stay on for a few extra months until their successors can be confirmed by Congress. Gates himself has been coy about whether he might stay on in a new administration, as some have suggested. The campaign teams of Democratic candidate Barack Obama and Republican candidate John McCain insist they are braced for the change. "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy," said Senator Joe Biden, Obama's running mate. "Watch, we're going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."
 

Russian cops pack new heat

On Oct. 28 to 31, Moscow hosted the Interpolitech-2008 international arms exhibition featuring the most advanced Russian and foreign-made military and specialized equipment for police and secret services. Equipment purchases for national security agencies and secret services were also announced. UAZ Patriot scout vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles for the Russian Federal Security Service's border troops and state-of-the-art liquid-crystal displays from Belarus and many other systems were displayed. However, the star of the show was the PP-2000 conventional blowback operated submachine gun, developed in the early 2000s by the famous Instrument Design Bureau (KBP) in Tula, a city 193 km (120 miles) south of Moscow. The PP-2000 became wildly popular after the government announced its plans to equip the Interior Ministry's special units with this hard-hitting weapon. It has the following specifications: length (stock closed/open): 34/58.2 cm; weight: 1.4 kg; effective range: 50 to 100 meters; and magazine capacity: 20 to 30 rounds. Unlike the Kalashnikov AKS-74U assault rifle with a 50cm folded-stock length, the PP-2000 can be concealed.

This is an ideal police weapon, capable of firing handgun cartridges with a lower muzzle velocity. Consequently, the chances of ricochet are minimized. The PP-2000 can also fire 9x19 7N31 armor-piercing cartridges against body armor and motor vehicles. Like many other Russian weapons, the easy-to-use PP-2000 has a rudimentary design for quick maintenance and repairs. All production versions are fitted with Picatinny rail for installing various sighting devices. They have begun producing PP-2000s for the Interior Ministry's special units. The authorities will have no trouble requisitioning and issuing these sturdy and convenient weapons to its patrolmen, traffic police and other units. Consequently, it will become possible to equip drivers/mechanics, surface-to-air missile system operators, gunners and other military personnel with AKS-74U assault rifles, which are smaller than full-size Kalashnikov rifles and are more effective than handguns or submachine guns.

Apart from weapons and special equipment for police and secret-service units, the exhibition featured civilian products, including numerous cold-steel weapons and fearsome-looking "household knives." Large companies and self-employed businessmen displayed hunting and carving knives, as well as intricate Damascus-steel weapons with lavishly decorated wooden handles. Motorists came to see SUVs assembled by GAZ Group in Nizhny Novgorod and the Ulyanovsk Automotive Plant (UAZ) and the less popular Trekol cars. UAZ showed its conventional and armored command vehicles and the Bars and Patriot SUVs used by the border troops and the Interior Ministry. A border force spokesman said there was no alternative to UAZ vehicles in Russia, and that they would continue to order them. The border troops operate upgraded UAZ SUVs instead of production vehicles.

The exhibition also featured the Lavina (Avalanche) riot-control vehicle with water cannons for dispersing aggressive crowds. Some production vehicles featured various types of additional equipment. An UAZ Bukhanka (Bread Loaf) SUV with an electric theft-prevention system will give any car thief the jolt of his life. Well-informed sources said the public may soon get to see classified equipment displayed at several pavilions closely guarded by Federal Security Service operatives.
 

Terrorist 'tweets'? US Army warns of Twitter dangers

A draft US Army intelligence report has identified the popular micro-blogging service Twitter, Global Positioning System maps and voice-changing software as potential terrorist tools. The report by the 304th Military Intelligence Battalion, posted on the website of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), examines a number of mobile and web technologies and their potential uses by militants. The posting of the report on the FAS site was reported Friday by Wired magazine contributing editor Noah Shachtman on his national security blog "Danger Room" at wired.com. The report is not based on clandestine reporting but drawn from open source intelligence known as OSINT. A chapter on "Potential for Terrorist Use of Twitter" notes that Twitter members sent out messages, known as "Tweets," reporting the July Los Angeles earthquake faster than news outlets and activists at the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis used it to provide information on police movements.

"Twitter has also become a social activism tool for socialists, human rights groups, communists, vegetarians, anarchists, religious communities, atheists, political enthusiasts, hacktivists and others to communicate with each other and to send messages to broader audiences," the report said. Hacktivists refers to politically motivated computer hackers. "Twitter is already used by some members to post and/or support extremist ideologies and perspectives," the report said. "Extremist and terrorist use of Twitter could evolve over time to reflect tactics that are already evolving in use by hacktivists and activists for surveillance," it said. "This could theoretically be combined with targeting." The report outlined scenarios in which militants could make use of Twitter, combined with such programs as Google Maps or cell phone pictures or video, to carry out an ambush or detonate explosives.

"Terrorists could theoretically use Twitter social networking in the US as an operation tool," it said. "However, it is unclear whether that same theoretical tool would be available to terrorists in other countries and to what extent." Besides Twitter, the report examined the potential use by militants of Global Positioning Systems and other technologies. "GPS cell phone service could be used by our adversaries for travel plans, surveillance and targeting," it said, noting that just such uses have been discussed in pro-Al-Qaeda forums along with the use of voice-changing software. "Terrorists may or may not be using voice-changing software but it should be of open source interest that online terrorist and/or terrorist enthusiasts are discussing it," the report said.
 

Government urged to focus on resilience in homeland security

Private sector leaders, key congressional staff and advisers to both presidential candidates largely agree that the next administration and Congress need to make critical infrastructure "resilience" a central concept in homeland security policy. At a forum on Wednesday sponsored by the Reform Institute, there was widespread agreement that the federal government must do more to help the private sector develop the capacity to survive crises and bounce back, whether the calamity is induced by terrorists, extreme weather, pandemic disease or anything else. "The challenge now is to define [resilience] and develop a comprehensive resiliency strategy that brings coherence and focus to homeland security policy, particularly the mission of the Department of Homeland Security," said Robert Kelly, a senior adviser at the Washington think tank.

The Reform Institute earlier this year conferred with more than 100 corporate leaders to explore best practices and share concerns about their ability to maintain continuity of operations during crises. Those discussions informed its new report on the subject, which recommends the next administration refocus DHS efforts to better identify threats in the global supply chain and serve as a clearinghouse for creating workable business continuity plans. "I'm optimistic about our relationship with the [federal] government," said Michael Hickey, vice president for government affairs and national security policy at Verizon. He said the communications sector and Homeland Security have begun to define roles and relationships in a way that makes sense. Whether a President Obama or President McCain takes the helm next year, his staff should tread carefully in crafting any new approach to protecting critical infrastructure, Hickey said. "I would encourage the new administration to take a thoughtful look at what programs exist and work."

"The federal government has done good work, but it is critical to push programs out to the states," Hickey said. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has done a good job of organizing efforts at the regional level, but more needs to be done to coordinate efforts to protect critical infrastructure and mitigate damage to the economy and social fabric of communities in the event of a crisis, he added. Timothy Farrell, a senior vice president for Bank of America, said the presidential transition and the fact that the next administration will have its hands full stabilizing the U.S. economy suggest that "this is a prime time for terrorists to take a look at us." Advisers to Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain participated in the forum and supported the notion that the federal government must play a greater role in fostering resiliency in the private sector, which is responsible for 85 percent of the nation's critical infrastructure, according to the Reform Institute. But neither campaign offered concrete ideas for how they would approach the issue.

Lee Carosi Dunn, counsel to McCain on technology and homeland security issues, emphasized McCain's support for improving emergency communications interoperability among first responders and for beefing up cybersecurity, while P.J. Crowley, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and an Obama volunteer adviser, said national security spending is weighted too heavily toward military operations at the expense of domestic defenses. One congressional staffer, who asked not to be identified, said too much of Homeland Security's focus on critical infrastructure has been in working with Washington-centric organizations -- large corporations and the associations that represent them. "The dialogue at the state and local levels could be much more effective," he said. In addition, he said there needs to be someone in government who can function as a chief risk officer, weighing DHS' programs against similar programs at other agencies: "When we look at the Homeland Security budget request we don't know what is going on with [similar] investments [at other agencies]."

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