(JANUARY 31)



LESSONS LEARNED FROM EASTERN EUROPE'S TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY


     Fredo Arias King of the Foundation 2 Era 2000 Fox & the Magazine Demokratizasiya has pointed out a series of important lessons and goals that are essential for a successful transition from communism to democracy.

    He explains that a successful political transition starts when the people become aware that the old system can not provide for their basic needs and that the government failures are acknowledged but cannot be corrected.  This is the case in Cuba.  The economic system is a complete failure.  Political and personal freedoms do not exist.  Economic equality exists only for the tourists and the few Cubans that have dollars to spend.  The Cuban people make do and struggle day to day while they wait for the death of Fidel Castro.  They hope that when Castro dies, his political system will die with him and that after he is gone, Cuba will have a new beginning.  They want a new system that will provide for their needs, provide equality and personal freedom for all.

    It is during this political climate that the people put their hopes in new ways and radical political change.  Often, during this political confusion, a spokesman in the opposition rises and becomes the leader of the people.  This has not happened in Cuba.  No one has been able to capture the imagination of the Cuban people.   Cuban dissidents in the island and exile community leaders have aspired to this position, but no one has become a focal point for political change. 

    Cubans fear the rise of a charismatic leader.  Cuban history is replete with romantic figures that promised to effect political democratic change and later became despots and enslavers of their people.   Most Cubans believe that change will not happen until Fidel Castro dies.   ¿Fidelismo,î the communist system that he formed borrowed from the Chinese version, was later modified to feed his monumental ego and to incorporate baseless personal theories.  His brother, Raul Castro and his close allies may inherit the island for a while, but they appear incapable to uphold power.  Fidelismo and its disparate theories are held together only by the charisma of Fidel Castro.  Real leadership will emerge after his death.

    When Castro dies, the Cuban Armed Forces will play a singular role.  If they refuse to support a continuation of Communism, democracy will have a chance.  The Cuban Armed forces will be heroes if they remember their constitutional role and support the transition to democracy.  Eastern Europe and Nicaragua were able to transition to democracy with the support of their armed forces.  Today they are proud of their success but acknowledge they made many errors that slowed the process of change and permitted old communists to return to power. The Cuban people need to be prepared.  They must insist that when the transition begins, all Cubans work for political change to establish a real democratic government and not just in name. 

    The Cuban armed forces and intelligence services must not be part of the executive government nor provide its allegiance to a political party or institution.  They must remain independent.  They must have a perfect understanding of the new role they will play in a democratic society.  They exist to combat national and foreign forces that intend to destroy the constitutional institutions of their country. 

    The Cuban-American Military council (CAMCO) is composed of more than 1000 former military men and women who served in the army, navy, air force, marines and coast guard.  Some CAMCO members were part of the Cuban Armed Forces before Castro°s take-over, some served in the Castro°s armed forces, some were members of the 2506 Brigade, and some served in the armed forces of the United States.  CAMCO members served in all the military specialties and in all the grades, from the lowest enlisted ranks to the grade of General.  CAMCO is prepared to assist the Cuban people if allowed to do so.  CAMCO can help the Cuban armed forces during the transition between communism and democracy.  CAMCO personnel have the experience to shorten the transition period.

    The Cuban people must be strong and ensure that the old communists do not return to power.  The new government must be composed of Cubans that will refuse to replace communism with some other form of dictatorship.  The focus should be liberty and freedom to the people.  They must shield against old mechanisms and illegitimate formulas that will corrupt the democratic ideals driving the transition.  Their best hope is to bring back the 1940 Constitution at least for an interim period.  The 1940 Constitution provides for political plurality and privileges and rights that exist in countries with a long history of democracy and human rights.  They must resist the easy solutions and half steps that limit individual freedoms and the privileges of a democratic institution.

    To ensure the success of the transition to democracy, there are some steps that should be taken.  Piotr Gulczynski, the Director of the Institute Walensa said the following about the Polish transition:  ¿We must replace the old government elite°s.  At the beginning, they will look for a way to remain in the government and retain their networks, then they will use the democratic institutions to sabotage the new government.  They must be weeded out early during the transition, because if we wait, they will be in power again and then it will be too late to do something about it.î  The Cuban people can also learn from Vaclav Havel who said:  ¿I prefer temporary inexperience to permanent sabotage.î

    After Fidel Castro°s death, many in his political network are sure to fake a political change of heart.  This was evident in nearly every single transition in Eastern Europe and Nicaragua.  Many among the old communists will support each other to hide their pasts and former sins.  They are sure to say whatever it takes to retain some form of power.  Mar Laar was very clear when he explained:  ¿It is very important to make a clean break with the past.  You cannot build a house in a field of mud.  We changed the Soviet administration for representatives of a new generation, not corrupted by a Soviet past.î

    It is important that the Cuban people understand the five steps in a political transition:

    1.        Euphoria

    2.        Division in a coalition

    3.        Disillusion

    4.        Dictatorial regrouping

    5.        Intense competition

    All the political transitions to democracy that occurred in Eastern Europe and Nicaragua were filled with problems and difficulties.  But then, all changes are difficult.  Humans dislike change because it confuses them and makes life harder at the beginning.  Unfortunately, many people prefer to so suffer than to break with their comfortable routines.  A political transition offers many exciting possibilities at the beginning, but it is often disappointing when the changes and hopes do not result in the immediate desired solutions.  Political changes often require a change in the way people think and act.  It also requires the prayers, the hopes and the determination of the people.  The Cuban people are capable and anxious to get started.