he United States have the military power to do what they want, but they need a broad-base global coalition to back their action, preferably with military contributions as well as words. To get this kind of support is not easy. The danger is that they will insist of qualification of American action that will amount, in effect, to appeasement, and that this in turn will divide and weaken both the administration and U.S. public opinion.

    It is very important that the United States sticks to the essentials of its military response and carries it through relentlessly and thoroughly. Although only Britain can be guaranteed to back the White House in every contingency, it is better in the long run for the United States to act without many allies, or even alone, than to engage in a messy compromised dictated by nervousness and cowardice.

    That would be the worst of all solutions and would be certain to lead to more terrorism, in more places, and on an ever-increasing scale. Now is the ideal moment for the United States to use all its physical capacity to eliminate terrorism in all its forms.

    The cause is overwhelmingly just. The nation is united. The hopes of decent, law-abiding men and women everywhere go with American arms. Such a moment may never recur.

    The resources of civilization are not yet exhausted. Those resources are largely in the United States hands, and this nation — the last, best hope of mankind — has an overwhelming duty to use them with purposeful justification and to the full, in the defense of the lives, property, and freedom of all of us. This is the central point to keep in mind when the weasel words of cowardice and surrender are pronounced.

    All terrorist groups, and terrorist governments, and states, should be abolished. Let us live a future of peace, freedom, and justice!

    Let us analyze very objectively Cuba’s capacities in several potential terrorist resources, and I will let the readers reach their own conclusions. But first, keep in mind who really Castro is.

    Castro has been in absolute power in Cuba for the last 46 years. The Cuban people have been terrorized, jailed, shot — their properties confiscated. There is no freedom of any type or kind whatsoever. There have been150,000 political prisoners in 47 years. Close to 16,000 executions. These are facts.

    Castro has intervened, assisted, invaded, or provided logistic and armaments to groups, terrorists, and organizations throughout the world: Africa, South, Central and North America, and Asia. Cuba serves as a sanctuary to hundreds of criminals and terrorists, from diverse parts of the world. Cuba has provided, and still does, military training to thousands of persons who later on have returned to their respective countries to try to overthrow their legitimate governments. These are facts.

    Castro has expressed in numerous occasions, in public and private appearances, nationally and in foreign countries, his hate towards the United States, its way of life, its political system, its economic system. These are facts.

    Castro allowed the Soviet Union in 1962 to install atomic warhead missiles in Cuba. Once discovered, he tried very insistently to launch a surprising missile attack against the United States. These are facts.

    The United States government, for the last several years, has classified Cuba as a terrorist nation. These are facts.

     Although Cuba signed and ratified all 12 international counter terrorism conventions in 2001, it has remained opposed to the US-led Coalition prosecuting the war in global terrorism and has been actively critical of many associated US policies and actions.

    On repeated occasions, for example, Cuba sent agents to US missions around the world who provided false leads designed to subvert the post September 11 investigation.

    In 20046, Cuba continued to host several terrorists and US fugitives. Cuba permitted up to 20 Basque Fatherland and Liberty members to reside in Cuba and provided safe heaven and support to members of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia-FARC- and National Liberation Army-ELN groups.

    An accused Irish Republican Army-IRA- weapons expert and longtime resident of Cuba went on trial in Colombia in 2002. He had been caught a year earlier in Colombia with two other IRA members and detained for training the FARC in advanced use of explosives. Some US fugitives continued to live on the island.

    Castro allowed the Soviet Union in 1962 to install atomic warhead missiles in Cuba. Once discovered, he tried to force the Soviet Union to launch a surprising missile attack against the United States.

    Castro has been 46 years in power in Cuba. A tyrant, an oppressor, who has imprisoned over 150,000 persons and executed above 16,000.

    With these premises, let us analyze what facilities and infrastructure Cuba has that could be used in terrorist activities. Part of the material contained through out the book is also exposed in this final chapter.

    When the Cold war ended, it was widely believed that a new era of international cooperation had begun. However, simply put, the end of the cold war has not led to a more peaceful world.

    The United States is the target of those who challenge the status quo, and one of those is Cuba. Furthermore, the PRC has joined efforts with Cuba in a new axis. The deterioration in China’s relations with the United States is also being accompanied by a warmer relationship with Russia. There are three nations that use intensively their intelligence services to harm the interests of the United States. These nations are: China, Cuba, and North Korea. These nations continue to expend significant resources to conduct intelligence operations against the United States.

    These efforts are centered on producing intelligence concerning the United States military capabilities, other national security activities, and military research and development activities. They have now expanded their collection efforts to place additional emphasis on collecting scientific, technical, economic, and proprietary information. These collection efforts are designed to provide technologies required for the acquisition and maintenance of advanced military systems, as well as to promote the national welfare of these nations. Each one of these countries has the ability to collect intelligence on targeted U.S. activities using HUMINT, SIGINT, and the analysis of open source material. Also, Cuba, China, and Russia have access to imagery products that can be used to produce IMINT. The United States is now the target of those who want to challenge the existing state of affairs. Security threats, in this new era of asymmetric warfare, will inevitable emerge more and more frequently.

    The “fall of communism” has not reduced the level or amount of espionage and other potential serious activities conducted against the United States. Recent espionage cases involving Russia, China, and Cuba are just the tip of the iceberg. Software is one weapon of information-based attacks. Such software includes computer viruses, Trojan Horses, worms, logic bombs, and eavesdropping snuffers. Advanced electronic hardware can also be useful in information attacks. In terms of maturity of the threat, the numbers tell the story. So far, in July of this year there have been over 300 reported hacked web sites. High Performance Computers (HPCs) are important for many military applications, including processing information acquired through espionage. It is said that HPCs have been  provided to Cuba by the PRC, and they  could facilitate many of Cuba’s asymmetric military modernization objectives.

    The PRC has obtained the HPCs from the United States. The contribution of HPCs to military modernization is also dependent on related technologies such as Telecommunications, Microelectronics, and Computer Networking, areas in which the PRC has been assisting Cuba intensively since 1998. The principal intelligence collection arms of the Cuban government are:

    Directorate General of Intelligence (DGI) of Ministry of Interior, and the Military Counterintelligence Department of the Ministry of the Armed Forces. The DGI is responsible for foreign intelligence collection.

   The DGI has six divisions divided into two categories of roughly equal size: The Operational Divisions and the Support Divisions.

   The operational divisions include the Political/Economic Intelligence Divisions, the External Counterintelligence Division, and the Military Intelligence Division.

    The support divisions include the Technical Support Division, the Information Division, and the Preparation Division. The Technical Support Division is responsible for production of false documents, communication systems supporting clandestine operations, and development of clandestine message capabilities. The Information and Preparation Divisions are responsible for intelligence analysis functions.

   The Political Economic Intelligence Division consists of four sections: Eastern Europe, North America, Western Europe, and Africa-Asia-Latin-America. The External Counterintelligence Division is responsible for penetrating foreign intelligence services and the surveillance of exiles. The Military Intelligence Department is focused on collecting information on the U.S. Armed Forces and coordinates SIGINT operations with the Russians (NOW DISMANTLED) at Lourdes, and controls the Bejucal base.

   The Military Counterintelligence Department is responsible for conducting counterintelligence, SIGINT, and electronic warfare activities against the United States.

   The full range of Cuba’s espionage activities are a very serious matter of concern. Despite the economic failure of the Castro regime, Cuban intelligence, in particular the DGI, remains a viable threat to the United States. The Cuban mission to the United States is the third largest UN delegation The United States’ intelligence agencies should devote their resources to the most serious security threats, principally international terrorism, and adverse political trends.

WAYS AND MEANS

CUBA’S ELITE MILITARY GROUP: SPECIAL TROOPS

    What are Cuba’s elite forces? Who commands them? Who trains them? Where is their training camp? What are the main missions they are prepared for? Since mid 1980s, Cuba established in Los Palacios, Pinar del Río, in a region known as El Cacho, a special troop military training school.

   Named Baraguá School, it is situated in a big valley, near the mountains of Pinar del Río. It is a very large training camp, with artificial lakes, and the most modern training technology. The School is exactly located where the first missiles were seen during the 1962 missile crisis. The De la Guardia brothers founded the School. It was under General José Luis Mesa, very close to Raúl Castro. General Mesa, 50, speaks fluent English, and is well mannered. He was a veteran of Vietnam, as a young officer, and also of the African wars. He retired due to health problems. The daily operations are under Colonel Ramírez, Veteran of Angola, Vietnam, and other war places. Colonel Ramírez is an expert on this kind of special troop training. Presently they have assistant from special personnel from China and Vietnam. The special troop school has about a constant flow of 2500 to 3000 men in training.

    Ranging from 18 to 35 years old, they are a breed apart — a cut above the rest. Unquestionable, they are one of the world’s finest unconventional warfare experts. Certainly, second only to the United States Special Troops in this Hemisphere. They are kept on an uncommon physical and mental caliber. Mature, highly skilled, and superbly trained. They are always ready to serve anywhere, at any time: Infiltrations, commando operations, biowarfare, cyber warfare, and espionage. Special troops are trained to deliver people, equipment, and weapons with surgical precision. They locate high-value, strategic, movable targets and they deliver firepower more accurately. They are trained to operate in small independent units.

What are they supposed to be capable of?

    They have advanced personal camouflage with enhanced protection against harsh environments and climatic conditions. Clothing will offer them individual body armor and safeguards against biological and chemical agents. They have helmets fitted with enhanced sensory head-up displays including thermal, image-intensified, and acoustic sensors. External and imbedded optics enable them to see long distances clearly without using handheld optical systems. They have external skeletal systems that will improve individual skills, enabling special operators to move faster, jump farther, and lift more weight. Such enhanced physical attributes allow them to deliver more deadly force with greater accuracy and penetrating power. They also have miniaturized command, control, and communication functions, as well as embedded artificial intelligence for situational decision-making. In Baraguá School, Special troops are trained to perform the following missions: · Unconventional Warfare, UW: A broad spectrum of military operations conducted in politically sensitive territory or “enemy” held territory. Including interrelated fields of guerrilla warfare, evasion and escape, subversion, sabotage. · Direct Action, DA: Either overt or cover action against an “enemy” force. Seize, damage, and destroy a target. Short duration, small scale offensive actions. Ambushes, direct assault tactics, emplace mines. · Special Reconnaissance, SR: Infiltration behind “enemy” lines. Collect meteorological, hydrographic, geographic, and demographic data. · Psychological Operations, PSYOP: Induce or reinforce foreign attitudes and behavior favorable to Cuba objectives. Influence emotions, motives, and behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals. They also receive additional training and skills in freefall parachuting, underwater operations, target interdiction strategic reconnaissance, and operations and intelligence. Obviously, this group is strictly an offensive military group. Cuba is an island, and therefore has not borders to defend from neighboring countries. The most serious threats from the Special troops are: biowarfare operations, cyber warfare operations, infiltrations, commando attacks, kidnapping, espionage.

BIOWARFARE

    Cuba started its biological program in 1982. Dr. Ernesto Bravo visited Boston University. There, with Dr. Lynn Margulis, and Dr. Harlyn Halvorson, they created NACSEX- North American/Cuban Scientific Exchange. By 1985 NACSEX had conducted several seminars and short courses in Cuba. Also, several Cuban scientists, engineers, physicians spent time at Boston University. Dr. Silva Rodriguez spent three months at Boston University, under Dr. Robert Zimmerman, learning new technology related to genetic engineering. While these events were happening, Castro had visited the Soviet Union in 1982, where he obtained from Brezhnev a laboratory donated to Cuba, where Ecoli bacteria could be genetically altered to produce interferon. This visit was followed by a visit to Cuba of General Vladimir Lebedensky, with a team of military scientists in biowarfare. By 2000, Cuba is the world’s second largest producer, by volume, of Alpha Interferon. Cuba is also the only country, besides highly developed nations, producing a high range of human and recombinant interferon on an industrial scale.

    Therefore, for the past thirty years, Cuba has been working in the research and development of biotechnological agents. Viruses and toxins have been altered genetically to heighten their lethality, paving the way for the development of pathogens capable of overcoming existing vaccines

    The arsenal in Cuba includes weapons based on tularemia, anthrax, smallpox, epidemic typhus, and dengue fever, Marburg, Ebola. It also includes neurological agents, based on chemical substances produced naturally in the human body.

    Cuba has acquired the technology and capacity to manufacture their own equipment. Some of the equipment required is very similar to equipment related to diary production, sugar cane processing, and liquor manufacturing, areas where Cuba has had experience and technology

    Cuba has developed, according to certain sources, in conjunction with the PRC’s company Medical Instrumentation Neuke, a toxin that paralyze the nervous system.

    Cuban main Centers dedicated to the research and development of biotechnological agents are: CIGB, or Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology; National Bio-preparations Center, or Biocen; the Institute of Tropical Medicine; The Finlay Institute; the Center for Molecular Immunology, or CIM; the National Academy of Sciences.

    There are also some other 160 Centers, smaller, disseminated throughout the country. Approximately 10,000 researchers-scientists, engineers, physicians, are working nationally in the field of biotechnology research and development.

CUBA’S CORE FOR BIOLOGICAL WARFARE: CIGB

    The core of the biowarfare efforts of the Cuban government is the Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (CIGB), located at 31 Avenue, between 158 and 190 streets, Cubanacán, La Habana. This institution is at the vanguard in the Hemisphere, second only to selected centers in the United States. Over 1,100 engineers, scientists, technicians work at the Center. It occupies a total area of over 62,000 square meters, with buildings occupying approximately 44,000 square meters, including laboratories, offices and service areas. There is a huge greenhouse of 1,700 square meters and 2.7 hectares of fertile soil. They also house a theater for conferences and congresses, and rooms for seminars, libraries, gymnasium, etc. The main production plant of bioagents covers 7,500 square meters, although the CIGB shares production with the Biopreparations Center, or BIOCEN, located in Bejucal, at Carretera Beltran km 1 ½, nearby the electronic espionage and interference base. The CIGB is structured into several big sub directions: research, quality control, production, engineering and services, teaching.

    The main oriented work lines are: pharmaceutical, vaccine, immunology, clinical, preclinical, automation, chemistry/physics, mammal cell genetics, plant molecular biology, cloning. The CIGB has a CIGBnet which is the network for the Center. It provides computer communications, database access, information services and data processing. It is operated by the Network Services Group of the Automation Division of the CIGB. It provides computer networking access to some 600 members.(out of the 1,100). LANs located in the Center are linked together using both dialup UUCP technology and RENACYT, the national academic X.25 network, operated by ICIMAF/CIDET. Protocols running on the LAN side are IPX/SPX, giving access to both Netware based and UNIX base services. PWGlue is an off line email management system of the Center, based on the Pegasus Mail. Glue code to get those two shareware packages working together was developed at the Center.

    Data batching and compression engines were also added. Data compression engines are compatible with UNIX standard compress utility or GNU’s gzip.email for certain personnel in the Center follow as this: last name@ingen.cigb.edu.cu The CIGB has a biotherium, barrier zones, white rooms, for research with sensitive and lethal bio agents. The CIGB’ modern and efficient technological equipment includes mass spectrometers, infrared and ultraviolet electron and scanning microscopes, gamma counters, DNA synthesizers. Also, and very important, downstream fermenters, drying and milling machines, centrifuges, which can guarantee research and development of bioweapons, such as bacteria and virus agents. The process of weaponizing anthrax, for example, can be done at these facilities. A few grains of the freeze-dried bacteria are kept in a stoppered vial. Then, a small amount of a nutrient medium is put into the vial. A mother culture is created. With tiny pipettes, the mixture is drawn out of the vial and a small amount is transferred into several slightly larger bottles. The bottles are left to incubate in a thermostatic oven for two days. This process, up to this point, is very similar to the one to make a vaccine. A seed stock in a standard vial will swell to billions of microorganisms after 48 hours, but it will take weeks of brewing to produce the quantities required for weaponization.

    Once the culture emerges from the oven, it is siphoned off into large flasks. The flasks are taken into a special room, where they are connected to air-bubbling machines, which turn the liquid into a light froth. The bacteria then grow more efficiently. Each new generation of bacteria is transferred into larger vessels, until is vacuum pressure into fermenters. The substance is incubated for two days in the fermenters, until it reaches maximum concentration. At this stage, the process is passed through a centrifuge to be concentrated as much as thirty times further. However, we do not have a weapon yet. The pathogen has to be mixed with special additives to stabilize it over a long period. Then, the weapon is ready.

    Smallpox virus can also be produced at the Center. Tissue cells are obtained from animals or humans. The tissue is kept alive outside its natural habitat in cell lines and stored at very precise temperature. Cells are obtained from the kidneys of green monkeys or from the lungs of human embryos. A special combination of amino acids, vitamins, salts, and sera, distilled with de-ionized water, is crucial for the process. Many of the equipment needed for the production of bioagents are similar to the equipment used in the dairy industry, liquor industry, and sugar mills. Therefore Cuba has the technology and the facilities to produce its own specialized equipment.

    Chemical warfare is the use of poison gases and other toxic chemicals to kill or incapacitate an enemy. Modern nerve gases and chemical warfare agents are a by-product of insecticide research. They are composed of organic chemicals known as organophosphorus compounds that inhibit the production of cholinesterase.

   Cuba initiated its first steps in chemical warfare during the Wars in Africa. Cuba learned its manufacturing, maintenance, and use from the Vietnamese, and the PRC. Later on, by the former Soviet Union. Small and efficient plants can turn out chemical weapons by the ton. These plants are scattered in Cuba, but mainly in the province of Habana, Central Cuba, near Sancti Spíritus, and in Santiago de Cuba.

    Chemical weapons usually cause burns, asphyxiation, and neurological damage.  Cuba worked with the Soviet Union in the development of a nerve gas called Novichok. This gas is five times as deadly as conventional nerve gases. It is purported that 40,000 tons of Novichok is enough to kill all human life on earth.

    Of course, the use of chemical weapons is limited by the excessive bulk of the chemical agents. Weather, winds and the practical limitations of dispersal would generally limit chemical weapons to use against concentrated targets. Chemical weapons can be very effective against troop concentrations, military facilities, and highly populated areas.

CYBERWARFARE

    On 1991 Cuba formed a group, under the Military Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces. The group was charged to obtain information to develop computer viruses. The project was under the military authority of Major Guillermo Bello, and his wife Colonel Sara María Jordan. The civilian authorities were the engineers Sergio Suárez, Amado García, and José Luis Presmanes Cuba’s main centers are: the Lourdes base, under Russian authorities; the Bejucal base, under Cuban authorities; the Paseo complex, between 11^th and 13^th streets; the Jaruco complex; the Wajay complex. There are several research and development Centers at universities and Institutes, as well as centers in Santiago de Cuba and Güines. Cuba has done extensive studies on electromagnetic radiation weapons. These are weapons capable of destroying microelectronic equipment from a two miles distance radius.

    There are several areas under cyberterrorism, all of which Cuba has the capacity and the technology to produce. We have: electronic eavesdropping or espionage; computer network intrusion, in the form of viruses; computer networks intrusion to change, alter, or read files; destruction of computer and electronic equipment through electromagnetic radiation Cuba has obtained from PRC several HPC-high performance computers-which can be used for military research and development in the areas of biowarfare and cyberwarfare. Since 1998, Cuba has being working very closely with the PRC in these areas, as well as in the biowarfare area.

 WHAT CAN BE DONE FROM THE BEJUCAL BASE BESIDES ELECTRONIC ESPIONAGE?

    From the Bejucal base in Cuba, besides the listening to telecommunication channels in the United States, they can also produce attacks on the security of the United States’ computer systems or networks. The general categories of attack are: Interruption: An asset of the system is destroyed or becomes unavailable or unusable. This is referred to as an attack on availability. Examples include destruction of a piece of hardware, such as a hard disk, the cutting of a communication line, or the disabling of the file management system. .

    Interception: They get access to an asset. This is referred to as an attack on confidentiality. Example is the unauthorized copying of files or programs.

    Modification: The attacker tampers with an asset. This is referred to as an attack on integrity. Examples include changing values in a data file altering a program so that it performs differently, and modifying the content of messages being transmitted in a network Fabrication: The attacker inserts counterfeit objects into the system. This is referred to as an attack on authenticity. Examples include the insertion of spurious messages in a network or the addition of records to a file.

     CATEGORIES OF ATTACKS A useful categorization of these attacks is in terms of passive attacks and active attacks. Passive attacks are in the nature of monitoring of transmissions. The goal of the attacker is to obtain information that is being transmitted.

    Two types of passive attacks are(1) release of message content;(2) traffic analysis. A release of message content is easily understood. A telephone conversation, an electronic mail message, and a transferred file may contain sensitive or confidential information. The second passive attack, traffic analysis, is more subtle. Suppose that we had a way of masking the contents of a message or other information traffic so that Cuba, even if they capture the information, could not extract the real information because of the use of encryption. The attacker could after a period of time extract the information and messages, defeating the encryption process.

     The second major category of attack is active attacks. These attacks involve some modification of the data stream or the creation of a false stream. It can be subdivided into four categories: masquerade, replay, modification of message, denial of service. A masquerade takes place when the attacker, under certain entity, pretends to be a different entity, and therefore enabling an authorized entity to obtain extra privileges. Replay involves the passive capture of a data unit and its subsequent retransmission to produce an unauthorized effect.

     Modification of service simply means that some portion of a legitimate message is altered, or that messages are delayed or reordered, to produce an unauthorized effect. The denial of service prevents or inhibits the normal use or management of communications facilities. This is a very important and serious possible attack. It could disrupt an entire network, either by disabling the network or by overloading it with messages so as to degrade performance.

    The attacker could target airports, financial centers, power companies, dams control centers, etc. It is quite difficult to prevent active attacks. The goal is to detect them and to recover from any disruption or delays caused by them.

    What are the most common techniques used so far to try to break into a system? Try words on the system’s online dictionary Collect information about the users. Full names, spouses’ names, children’s names, pictures in their offices, books in their offices, etc (Here the operating personnel in Bejucal needs inside information) Users’ phone numbers, social security numbers, room numbers, license plate numbers, etc (inside information is also needed) Use a Trojan horse Tap the line between a remote user and the host system

    Network security has assumed increasing importance. Individuals, corporations, government agencies, must heighten their awareness to protect data and messages, and to protect systems from network-based attacks. The disciplines of cryptography and network security have matured, leading to the development of practical, readily available applications to enforce network security.

DIRTY BOMBS

    Of the countless scenarios of terrorist mayhem, none quickens the pulse quite like the menace of a nuclear bomb, and for good reason. A nuclear weapon embodies essentially everything a terrorist could hope for: the ability to kill at least tens of thousands of people at once, a fiery explosion that reverberates globally in images of death and destruction, and a lingering, lethal legacy, in the form of radioactive fallout.

    Fortunately, most groups and terrorist nations are limited in their resources and lack the infrastructure to build a nuclear bomb. But, why build a bomb when there are far cheaper and simpler ways of waging nuclear terror?

    There are two other possibilities that, for their comparative simplicity, would deliver much of the bang of a bomb. Flying a fully fueled jumbo jet into a nuclear reactor is one. The other is using radioactive nuclear materials to kill or sicken people or render tracts of land uninhabitable by, for example, scattering the materials with a conventional explosion.

    Nuclear reactors are surrounded by a massive containment structure with concrete-and-steel walls more than a meter thick. These containments were designed to withstand earthquakes and extremely violent impacts, but not the sort a plunging jumbo jet would cause if fully loaded with fuel, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in Vienna, Austria.

    In a 26 September release, the agency suggested that such an impact would not trigger a runaway nuclear reaction, because automatic safety systems would flood the reactor with water. A direct hit by a large, fueled aircraft might nevertheless breach the containment and damage the reactor, possibly causing a leak of radioactive steam and fallout.

    The IAEA’s assessment predicts that the worst damage would be confined within 10 Kms. of the plant. Even so, dangerous levels of radioactivity would likely persist for 10 to 15 years.

    Radiological dispersion devices-the poor man’s nuclear weapon-, or dirty bomb, are another possibility likely to attract increasing interest from terrorists. Scattering radiation without a nuclear explosion, they are a near-term terrorist threat. Several nations-including a few sponsors of terrorism-have dabbled in dispersion devices. In the 1980s, Iraq produced and tested conventional bombs filled with radioactive materials-apparently, spent fuel from its research reactors, according to a 1991 report by the CIA. Cuba, by the way, has two research reactors.

    Spent fuel is the obvious choice for the radioactive material in a terrorist device. Many tens of thousands of tons of it lie scattered around the world, including small accumulations in Iraq, Iran, Algeria, Libya, Syria, Pakistan, North Korea, and Cuba.

    A single, half-ton spent fuel assembly from a reactor contains more than enough radioactivity to put a transportation terminal or some other strategic location out of action for months, or years, if the radioactivity is well dispersed.

    The most accessible nuclear device for any terrorist would be a radiological dispersion bomb. This so-called ‘dirty bomb’ would consist of waste by-products from nuclear reactors wrapped in conventional explosives, which upon detonation would spew deadly radioactive particles into the environment.

    This is an expedient weapon, in that radioactive waste material is relatively easy to obtain. Radioactive waste is widely found throughout the world, and in general is not as well guarded as actual nuclear weapons. In the United States, radioactive waste is located at more than 70 commercial nuclear power sites in 31 states. Enormous quantities also exist overseas — in Europe and Japan in particular. Tons of wastes are transported long distances, including between continents (Japan to Europe and back).

    Cuba, since 1988 has two experimental nuclear reactors in La Habana. Very low power. One is a 10 Watts. The other is referred to as zero Watts. They are used for nuclear medicine and research on nuclear biotechnology. But they do generate nuclear waste.

    In Russia, security for nuclear waste is especially poor, and the potential for diversion and actual use by Islamic radicals has been shown to be very real indeed. In 1996, Islamic rebels from the break-away province of Chechnya planted, but did not detonate, such a device in Moscow’s Izmailovo Park to demonstrate Russia’s vulnerability. This dirty bomb consisted of a deadly brew of dynamite and one of the highly radioactive by-products of nuclear fission — Cesium 137. Extreme versions of such gamma-ray emitting bombs, such as a dynamite-laden casket of spent fuel from a nuclear power plant, would not kill quite as many people as died on Sept. 11. Worst-case calculation for an explosion in downtown Manhattan during noontime: more than 2,000 deaths and many thousands more suffering from radiation poisoning. Treatment of those exposed would be greatly hampered by inadequate medical facilities and training. The United States has only a single hospital emergency room dedicated to treating patients exposed to radiation hazards, at Oak Ridge, Tenn. A credible threat to explode such a bomb in a U.S. city could have a powerful impact on the conduct of U.S. foreign and military policy, and could possibly have a paralyzing effect. Not only would the potential loss of life be considerable, but also the prospect of mass evacuation of dense urban centers would loom large in the minds of policy-makers.

    The threat from radiological dispersion dims in comparison to the possibility that terrorists could build or obtain an actual atomic bomb. An explosion of even low yield could kill hundreds of thousands of people. A relatively small bomb, say 15-kilotons, detonated in Manhattan could immediately kill upwards of 100,000 inhabitants, followed by a comparable number of deaths in the lingering aftermath. Fortunately, bomb-grade nuclear fissile material (highly enriched uranium or plutonium) is relatively heavily guarded in most, if not all, nuclear weapon states. Nonetheless, the possibility of diversion remains. Massive quantities of fissile material exist around the world. Sophisticated terrorists could fairly readily design and fabricate a workable atomic bomb once they manage to acquire the precious deadly ingredients (the Hiroshima bomb which used a simple gun-barrel design is the prime example).

     Obviously, intelligence that helps localize the bomb is the main key to success. Just as obviously, intelligence of such quality is seldom available — as proven on Sept. 11. Such a search could be truly looking for a needle in a haystack, as detection normally would succeed only if the detectors come within a few feet or so of the hidden bomb. Disabling a bomb is easy by comparison. A radiological bomb might be surrounded by a tent enclosure several tens of feet in height and width, then filled with a special foam to contain the deadly radioactive material (such as Cesium 137) if the bomb explodes during further defusing attempts. For a nuclear device there are available a set of options for disabling the weapon, including using explosives to wreck the bomb’s wiring to prevent the triggering of the nuclear detonators. Because of the difficulty inherent in finding a nuclear weapon once it entered the country, near-term U.S. response efforts would be best focused on prevention and intervention to secure possible sources of nuclear terrorism.
 A state sponsor of terrorism would simply give the spent fuel or perhaps even an entire dispersion device to terrorist groups. We must be on the alert, and start thinking from the terrorist’s perspective of maximizing the destruction.