The
assessment
addresses
the
unconventional
threats
of
biowarfare,
cyberwarfare,
high
technology
weapons,
and
electronic
espionage.
Secretary
of
Defense,
William
Cohen,
observed
in
his
1998
Annual
Defense
Report:
"Those
who
oppose
the
United
States
will
increasingly
rely
on
unconventional
strategies
and
tactics
to
offset
U.S.
superiority".
He
then
mentioned
asymmetric
threats
such
as:
information
operations,
cyberterrorism,
and
biowarfare.
The
Castros’
Cuba
is a
prime
example
of a
nation
developing
such
unconventional
or
asymmetric
methods
of
challenging
or
threatening
the
United
States.
In a
letter
to
Secretary
Cohen,
dated
March
31,
1998,
then
Speaker
of
the
House
of
Representatives
Newt
Gingrich,
wrote:
"I
am
very
concerned
about
recent
reports
indicating
that
Castro's
secretive
network
of
sophisticated
biological
and
genetic
research
labs
are
being
used
by
the
military
and
Interior
Ministry
to
develop
biological
weapons."
On
the
March
31,
1998
edition,
the
Washington
Post
addressed
the
topic
of
the
threat
from
Cuba,
partially
stating
“Cuba
has
one
of
the
most
sophisticated
biotech
and
pharmaceutical
industries
in
the
hemisphere.
Because
lethal
biological
materials
can
be
produced
by
countries
with
biotech
industries,
it
is
difficult
to
determine
when
a
country
moves
from
simply
having
the
capability
to
produce
deadly
viruses,
to
the
intent
or
plans
to
do
so."
Given
the
Castros’
proven
instability,
ongoing
anti-Americanism,
and
proximity
to
the
U.S.,
it
would
be
an
unacceptable
mistake
to
underestimate
his
capabilities
or
his
intentions.
A
report
submitted
by
the
U.S.
Office
of
Technological
Assessment
in
late
1995
identified
seventeen
countries
believed
to
possess
biological
weapons-
Lybia,
North
Korea,
South
Korea,
Iraq,
Taiwan,
Syria,
Israel,
Iran,
China,
Egypt,
Vietnam,
Laos,
Bulgaria,
India,
South
Africa,
Russia,
and
Cuba.
In
an
appearance
before
the
Senate
Select
Committee
on
Intelligence,
January,
1998,
Louis
J.
Freeh,
Director,
Federal
Bureau
of
Investigation,
stated
"State
sponsors
of
terrorism
include
Iran,
Iraq,
Syria,
Sudan,
Libya,
North
Korea
and
Cuba."
It
has
long
been
a
concern
also
in
the
scientific
community
that
Soviet
scientists
led
the
world
in
development
of
Radio
Frequency
weapon
technologies.
The
Soviet
Union
had
a
large
and
diverse
RF
weapons
program
and
this
work
continue
today
within
FSU
countries.
It
is
well
known
the
close
technical
and
military
relationship
in
this
field
between
the
Soviet
Union
and
Cuba.
The
relationship
includes
the
establishment
of
the
Lourdes'
electronic
espionage
base,
operated
in
Cuba
by
the
Russians,
and
most
recently,
the
construction
of a
similar
base
in
Bejucal,
operated
solely
by
Cuban
personnel.
Castro
has
been
in
absolute
power
in
Cuba
for
the
last
47
years.
The
Cuban
people
have
been
terrorized,
jailed,
shot,
confiscated
their
properties.
There
is
no
freedom
of
any
type
or
kind
whatsoever.
Cuba
has
intervened,
assisted,
invaded,
or
provided
logistic
and
armaments
to
groups,
terrorists,
and
organizations
throughout
the
world:
Africa,
South
America,
Central
America,
North
America
and
Asia.
Cuba
serves
as a
sanctuary
to
hundreds
of
criminals,
terrorists,
from
diverse
parts
of
the
world.
Cuba
has
provided,
and
still
does,
military
training
to
thousands
of
persons
who
later
on
have
returned
to
their
respective
countries
to
try
to
overthrow
their
legitimate
governments.
Castro,
both
Fidel
and
Raul,
have
expressed
in
innumerable
occasions,
in
public
and
private
appearances,
nationally
and
in
foreign
countries
his
hate
towards
the
United
States,
its
way
of
live,
its
political
system,
its
economic
system.
Castro
allowed
the
Soviet
Union
in
1962
to
install
nuclear
warhead
missiles
in
Cuba.
Once
discovered,
he
tried
very
insistently
to
launch
a
surprising
missile
attack
against
the
United
States.
There
are
four
nations
that
use
intensively
their
intelligence
services
to
harm
the
interests
of
the
United
States.
The
nations
are:
PRC,
Iran,Cuba,
and
North
Korea.
These
nations
continue
to
expend
significant
resources
to
conduct
intelligence
operations
against
the
United
States.
Each
one
of
these
countries
has
the
ability
to
collect
intelligence
on
targeted
U.S.
activities
using
HUMINT,
SIGINT,
and
the
analysis
of
open
source
material.
Also,
Cuba,
through
China,
has
access
to
imagery
products
that
can
be
used
to
produce
IMINT.
The
United
States
is
now
the
target
of
those
who
want
to
challenge
the
existing
state
of
affairs.
Security
threats,
in
this
new
era
of
asymmetric
warfare,
will
inevitable
emerge
more
and
more
frequently.
For
the
past
thirty-four
years,
since
1982,
Cuba
has
been
working
in
the
research
and
development
of
biotechnological
agents.
Viruses
and
toxins
have
been
altered
genetically
to
heighten
their
lethality,
paving
the
way
for
the
development
of
pathogens
capable
of
overcoming
existing
vaccines.
The
arsenal
in
Cuba
could
includes
weapons
based
on
tularemia,
anthrax,
smallpox,
epidemic
typhus,
dengue
fever,
It
also
includes
neurological
agents,
based
on
chemical
substances
produced
naturally
in
the
human
body.
Cuba
has
acquired
the
technology
and
capacity
to
manufacture
its
own
equipment.
Some
of
the
equipment
required
is
very
similar
to
equipment
related
to
diary
production,
sugar
cane
processing,
and
liquor
manufacturing,
areas
where
Cuba
has
had
experience
and
technology
On
1991
Cuba
formed
a
group,
under
the
Military
Intelligence
Directorate
of
the
Armed
Forces.
The
group
was
charged
to
obtain
information
to
develop
computer
viruses.
Cuba’s
main
centers
are:
the
Bejucal
base;
the
Paseo
complex,
between
11th
and
13th
streets;
the
Jaruco
complex;
the
Wajay
complex,
and
the
Santiago
de
Cuba
antenna
farm.
There
are
several
research
and
development
Centers
at
universities
and
Institutes.
Cuba
has
done
extensive
studies
on
electromagnetic
radiation
weapons.
These
are
weapons
capable
of
destroying
microelectronic
equipment
from
a
two
miles
distance
radius.
There
are
several
areas
under
cyber-terrorism,
all
of
which
Cuba
has
the
capacity
and
the
technology
to
produce.
We
have:
electronic
eavesdropping
or
espionage;
computer
network
intrusion,
in
the
form
of
viruses;
computer
networks
intrusion
to
change,
alter,
or
read
files;
destruction
of
computer
and
electronic
equipment
through
electromagnetic
radiation
Radiological
dispersion
devices-the
poor
man’s
nuclear
weapon-,
or
dirty
bomb,
are
another
possibility
likely
to
attract
increasing
interest
from
terrorists.
Scattering
radiation
without
a
nuclear
explosion,
they
are
a
near-term
terrorist
threat.
Several
nations-including
a
few
sponsors
of
terrorism-have
dabbled
in
dispersion
devices.
In
the
1980s,
Iraq
produced
and
tested
conventional
bombs
filled
with
radioactive
materials-apparently,
spent
fuel
from
its
research
reactors,
according
to a
1991
report
by
the
CIA.
Cuba,
by
the
way,
has
two
research
reactors.
There
are
three
main
areas
of
concern
for
us
in
the
new
and
dangerous
axis
formed
by
China
and
Cuba:
radio
frequency
weapons,
computer
technology,
missile
capabilities.
The
problem
with
the
Chinese/
Cuban
rapprochement
is
that
it
is
driven
by
mutual
hostility
towards
the
United
States.
Radio
frequency
weapons
are
a
new
radical
class
of
weapons.
Radio
frequency
weapons
can
utilize
either
high
energy
radio
frequency
(HERF),
or
low
energy
radio
frequency
(LERF)
technology.
HERF
is
advanced
technology.
It
is
based
on
concentrating
large
amounts
of
RF
EM
energy
in
within
a
small
space,
narrow
frequency
range,
and
a
very
short
period
of
time.
The
result
is
an
overpowering
RF
EM
impulse
capable
of
causing
substantial
damage
to
electronic
components.
LERF
utilizes
relatively
low
energy,
which
is
spread
over
a
wide
frequency
spectrum.
It
can
be
no
less
effective
in
disrupting
normal
functioning
of
computers
as
HERF
due
to
the
wider
range
of
frequencies
it
occupies.
LERF
does
not
require
time
compression
neither
high
tech
components.
LERF
impact
on
computers
and
computer
networks
could
be
devastating.
The
FBI
has
identified
the
following
countries
as
State
sponsors
of
terrorism:
Iran,
Cuba,
Syria,
Sudan,
and
North
Korea.
The
U.S.
Office
of
Technological
Assessment
has
identified
seventeen
countries
believed
to
possess
biological
weapons.
Cuba
is
one
of
them.
Cuba,
due
to
its
proximity
to
the
United
States,
its
electronic
espionage
facilities,
and
the
constant
flow
of
people
between
the
United
States
and
Cuba,
has
served
as a
Center
for
Logistics
for
all
terrorist
groups
and
nations.
Cuba
has
the
means
and
technology
to
develop
the
so
called
“dirty
bombs”
capable
of
producing
radiological
bomb
attacks.
John
Bolton,
Undersecretary
of
State,
President
Bush
administration,
May
6,
2003,
for
the
first
time,
identified
three
rogue
nations
that
pose
significant
danger
to
U.S.
security
and
continue
to
develop
weapons
of
mass
destruction.
“The
three
nations
named
–
Libya,
Syria
and
Cuba
–
Bolton
says
will
pose
the
most
significant
threat
to
the
U.S.
But
the
U.S.
may
be
wagging
its
finger
most
boldly
at
Cuba.”
Bolton’s
speech
was
the
administration’s
first
effort
to
target
Castro’s
regime,
and
lays
out
concerns
about
Castro’s
growing
military
threat
to
the
U.S.
Bolton
says
bluntly
Cuba
has
been
developing
biological
weapons
of
mass
destruction,
and
issued
a
demand
on
behalf
of
the
U.S.
government:
“We
call
on
Cuba
to
cease
all
BW-applicable
cooperation
with
rogue
states
and
to
fully
comply
with
all
of
its
obligations
under
the
Biological
Weapons
Convention.”
Bolton
noted
that
while
“Cuba’s
threat
to
our
security
has
often
been
underplayed,”
the
Bush
administration
is
reassessing
that
threat.
"…
there
is a
threat
coming
from
another
BWC
signatory,
and
one
that
lies
just
90
miles
from
the
U.S.
mainland
–
namely,
Cuba,”
Bolton
said.
Bolton
also
noted
that
Cuba
remains
a
"totalitarian
state
has
long
been
a
violator
of
human
rights.”
Additionally,
he
said
Cuba
“has
long
provided
safe
haven
for
terrorists,
earning
it a
place
on
the
State
Department’s
list
of
terrorist-sponsoring
states.
The
country
is
known
to
be
harboring
terrorists
from
Colombia,
Spain,
and
fugitives
from
the
United
States.
We
know
that
Cuba
is
collaborating
with
other
state
sponsors
of
terror.”
Bolton
continued:
“Castro
has
repeatedly
denounced
the
U.S.
war
on
terrorism.
He
continues
to
view
terror
as a
legitimate
tactic
to
further
revolutionary
objectives.
In
May
2001,
Castro
visited
Iran,
Syria
and
Libya
–
all
designees
on
the
same
list
of
terrorist-sponsoring
states.
At
Tehran
University,
these
were
his
words:
‘Iran
and
Cuba,
in
cooperation
with
each
other,
can
bring
America
to
its
knees.
The
U.S.
regime
is
very
weak,
and
we
are
witnessing
this
weakness
from
close
up.’”
For
the
first
time,
Bolton
revealed
that
the
U.S.
“believes
that
Cuba
has
at
least
a
limited
offensive
biological
warfare
research
and
development
effort.
Cuba
has
provided
dual-use
biotechnology
to
other
rogue
states.
We
are
concerned
that
such
technology
could
support
BW
programs
in
those
states.”
It
is
very
important
that
the
United
States
sticks
to
the
essentials
of
its
military
response
and
carries
it
through
relentlessly
and
thoroughly.
Although
only
Britain
can
be
guaranteed
to
back
the
White
House
in
every
contingency,
it
is
better
in
the
long
run
for
the
United
States
to
act
without
many
allies,
or
even
alone,
than
to
engage
in a
messy
compromised
dictated
by
nervousness
and
cowardice.
That
would
be
the
worst
of
all
solutions
and
would
be
certain
to
lead
to
more
terrorism,
in
more
places,
and
on
an
ever-increasing
scale.
Now
is
the
ideal
moment
for
the
United
States
to
use
all
its
physical
capacity
to
eliminate
terrorism
in
all
its
forms.
All
terrorist
groups,
and
terrorist
governments,
and
states,
should
be
abolished.
Let
us
live
a
future
of
peace,
freedom,
and
justice.
The
Many
Roads
to
Mass
Destruction
|
Weapon type |
Action |
Harm to humans |
Current stockpolies and owners |
|
Nuclear warheads |
Explosive release of energy due to a chain reaction |
Widespread injury and death from initial shock wave, thermal and nuclear radiation, and firestorm. Longer term: cancer and birth defects from radioactive fallout |
United States:9,600
Russia: 9200
China: 400
OTHERS: 1,200 |
|
Radiological devices |
Wide dispersal of radioactive material using conventional explosives or other means |
Same radiological effects as fallout from nuclear weapons |
Worldwide there are 438 nuclear power plants; 550 research reactors; 1000 tons of weapons-and commercial grade plutonium; 2300 tons of spent nuclear fuel. Of the terrorist nations: North Korea, Cuba, Iran, |
|
Chemical |
Release of chemicals so as to injure, incapacitate, or kill humans, animals, and/or plants |
Depending on agent, inhalation, ingestion, and/or absorption through skin may affect the nervous and circulatory systems, lungs, gastrointestinal tract, skin, eyes. Longer term: cancer and birth defects |
Russia: 40,000 tons
United States: 30,000 tons
Others: Iran, North Korea, Syria
Cuba |
|
Biological |
Release of bacteria, viruses, or toxins into the air, food, or water to cause disease or death to humans, animals, and/or plants |
Depending on pathogen, incubation for 24 hours to 6 weeks before symptoms appear. |
Countries suspected of having sizeable stockpiles of anthrax, smallpox and other biological agents: Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba |