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RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL
{12-05-2019}


CARNIVOROUS LEFT IN LATIN AMERICA: PROFITS AND LOSSES 2019/2020

Jorge Hernández Fonseca

 


2019 will go into Latin American history as a very “moved” year from the political point of view, where the right-left camps alternated “transcendently”. All actions, in different countries and of various kinds, are intimately connected. The process began in Venezuela with the proclamation of Juan Guaidó as president in charge, passing Nicolás Maduro to be considered illegitimate president, opening the crisis.

The above was accompanied by a massive popular mobilization and successive episodes of questioning of Maduro's authority, such as the recognition of Guaidó by almost 60 important countries of the World, a frustrated attempt to enter Venezuela with humanitarian aid that Venezuelan government rejected and even a serious threat of coup d'etat, with the participation of high-ranking mature leaders. No one doubted that Maduro would fall.

In the midst of this environment, the US tempted to move to Colombia and Brazil to accompany it in a military action against Venezuela, rejected by all the countries of the “Lima Group” and specially by Colombian President Iván Duque. Maduro managed to “weather the storm” and as a representative of the carnivorous left in South America, summoned the San Pablo Forum to prepare a counterattack, which would take the threatening crisis out of its territory.

A false move by Lenin Moreno in Ecuador gave the starting whistle. The organized hordes of the carnivorous left attacked disproportionately the infrastructure, both in Quito and Guayaquil, with an unprecedented attack on "popular" demonstrations. Moreno had to capitulate, leaving the main Ecuadorian cities very affected.

Then, another "skid" of President Piñera in Chile, led to a planned and devastating attack on the infrastructure of the Santiago Metro, looting of supermarkets, businesses and homes, far exceeding the police response, which plunged Chilean society into the greatest helplessness, subject to vandals of all kinds. Revenge against its exemplary democracy.

In parallel, the Bolivian people were well rebelling against the fraud of Evo Morales that would perpetuate him in power. Then, the left lost the elections in Uruguay, cutting off long years of governments that supported Castro-Chavismo. In Brazil, Bolsonaro had a law passed that protects his police against vandals. Then, as if by magic, the carnivorous left attacked Colombia to ask for the head of President Duque, who had refused military action against Venezuela and now received an asymmetric war from his neighbor to rank the Colombian left's values , facing the replacement of Duke - right now if it falters - or in the next presidential elections.

The United States, a natural ally of the Latin American democracies, has already blamed Cuba and Venezuela for these attacks, but has not ruled in the field of actions. Will you continue to the Lima Group thinking that military action against Venezuela is not convenient, in response to these attacks? Will Duque think that a military action against his neighbor does not respond to Colombian interests, directly attacked by Maduro and Cabello?

The panorama remains open. In the fray, the left has lost two important places: Bolivia and Uruguay; but it has dealt important blows in Ecuador, Chile and Colombia. In 2020 there are presidential elections in the USA. Would it respond to the electoral interests of President Trump, that the US (with or without Colombia and Brazil) solve “the Venezuelan problem” by military means? The answer to this question will delineate the actions within Venezuela 2020 as a democratic response to the excesses of the carnivorous left, with consequences in Brazil?

 

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RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL
{12-01-2019}

AMERICA: THE COUNTER ATTACK OF THE  CASTRO-CHAVISTA LEFT

Jorge Hernández Fonseca

The attack of the masses - supposedly well intentioned - on the infrastructures of Ecuador, Chile and Colombia (so far) we all know that they originated from structured plans in the Castro-Chavist laboratories of Havana and Caracas. These accurate and destructive "popular" attacks also have more or less real justifications for problems that these countries present and / or were initiated as a premeditated reaction to unpopular measures.

That said, I personally believe that the current situation that Latin America is going through must be seen as a whole. A global perspective would be to see these widespread excesses as a revenge of Castro-Chavismo to the critical situation that Maduro's Venezuela went through earlier this year, beset by popular demonstrations and the proclamation of Juan Guairo as President in Charge, questioning the dubious legitimacy of Maduro at the head of the Executive. The Maduro's head is not worth a penny, but he failed to defeat.

Latin America, represented by the Lima Group, had opposed a military intervention - which was what the situation demanded - to close the game against in Venezuela. Earlier this year, the defense ministers of Colombia and Brazil, which have borders with Venezuela, were summoned to Washington. It is not difficult to imagine that it was to coordinate the war actions. I remember that the new president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, had expressed his support for this solution, but President Duque aborted the attempt and now pays with an asymmetric war in his country, while Venezuela is pleased.

Historical experience tells us that every time a wrong decision is made in the military field (it is the current Latin American field) the consequences are very expensive. Colombia (and the Lima group) did not want war (against Chavista Venezuela) due to humanitarian circumstances, but it turns out that it is now Venezuela that has taken the dreaded war to its own spaces, irregularly and asymmetrically, but painfully and cruel .

Castro-Chavismo has Brazil in its sights for the continuation of its asymmetric war within the South American Giant, but Bolsonaro has already taken preventive measures. Everything could have been avoided if, at the beginning of the year, that war against Chavismo, the Lima Group (which now suffers from the costly consequences of its indecision, or its bad decision) would have cut it off for its sake, also freeing the suffering of the Venezuelan people. Now there is war within democratic Latin America, Venezuelans continue to be oppressed and Castro-Chavismo alive.

The circumstances that occurred at the beginning of the year in Latin America are no longer the same. Brazil, which at that time had entered into the confrontation, no longer thinks alike and although the attacked Colombia is now more prone to the military solution against its Venezuelan neighbor, in the US there is an electoral environment that may not help in this regard. Lost opportunity.

The lessons of World War II are decisive. At the beginning of it, the future allies against fascism, all, to avoid war, allowed with their weakness that Hitler had free hands to act, as we now allow Castro and Maduro. Errors are paid dearly; It is hard to recognize that the current excesses could have been avoided.


 


 

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RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL
{10-28-2019}


IMPEACHEMENT AGAINST DONALD TRUMP: TWO HIPOTHESES

Jorge Hernández Fonseca

 
In the United States, in the face of the 2020 elections, there is an Impeachment movement against the current president, partially officialized by the leader of the US Democratic Party. Logically, hypotheses have been made in this regard, based on the principle, "in politics, the important thing is what is not said." Personally I have two hypotheses, which I will expose, to follow this clodely interesting and risky episode (for the Democrats).

It is not a secret for anyone, including Trump, that there will also be news of all kinds against the Democratic candidate who leads the nomination for election run by that party, Joe Biden, who drags his son in the debate, because somehow they were the origin of Trump's supposed “sins,” in private conversation with the president of Ukraine.
 

Both hypotheses originate with the question, to whom does this process suit? The first hypothesis immediately jumps: to the Democratic candidates who go after Biden in the run for the primary elections. Trump hypothetically seems to be weakened with the impeachment - if he comes alive - Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders would be the main beneficiaries. By intuition I think that Sanders could be behind this strategy, because Biden would get “badly hurt” from the incident and Mrs. Warren has been very beaten by Trump.

The second hypothesis is based on the fact that it is practically impossible for Trump to be replaced from his position at the end of the process, because his party dominates the Senate vote, which is essential for pulling Trump out of the presidency. In that case and adding that hypothesis to the analysis, President Trump himself would have been the one who set this "trap" to the Democrats. Indeed, the process is going to involve Trump, but he has Biden and his son as co-participants, with accusations that seems to be as, or more serious than those made to the president.

Personally I prefer the hypothesis that Trump was the origin of everything. First, the process would always end without its replacement for the reasons stated above and second, it is very suspicious and too casual, that everything came to the public at the time that the president of Ukraine was in the US and could appear with Trump before the press to exonerate him from the main accusation. There will be a serious "shooting" of accusations between Trump and Biden during the impeachment, but, the most harmed would be Biden, because Trump elevates his possibilities of reelection.

 


 

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RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL
{10-09-2019}
 

 

THE PROBABLE STAGES OF CUBa's future
Jorge Hernández Fonseca

Before the materialization on the island of an attempt to model the continuity of the political, economic and social cancer that Castroism has meant for the Cuban Nation, taking hostage a patriotic date that is alien to it - on October 10 - I want to expose my considerations on what will be in the future the recognition of socialist failure, the defeat of the dictatorship and the opening of the skies of the Fatherland to new economic, social and political directions.

Tomorrow, October 10, nothing important will happen for the country. The important thing will come with the physical disappearance of the last Castro Ruz at the head of the country's destinations. Whoever the designated successor may be (everyone on the island knows about Castro's failure) there will be an initial stage of going to capitalism in the economy, just as China and Viet Nam did before, but without political freedom. However, during this first stage Cubans can finally have breakfast, lunch and dinner. It is not all that a good Cuban wants for his country, but it will be “the” beginning.

This stage will be welcomed by the United States, whoever is the ruling president, because the US elite appreciates Cuba - in these moments - much more its social stability than the change of its political regime. Of course, the US would like a democracy on the island, but in the face of current reality, it prefers the maintenance of the internal "order" of Castroism and the containment of proven crime, rather than the adventure of a power vacuum that re-edit control of the country in Cuba that the narco has in Mexico and Central America today.

Freedom and democracy for Cuba will come “over time” - as a second stage - when the concepts associated with these values are conscious in the minds of a people who today are forced only to think about their livelihood, of some rulers who they have lost their way by oppressing their fellow citizens to the limit, when the material hardships of socialism are a sad memory and the guilt of Castroism is part of reality.

Who writes these lines wishes for an immediate democratic future for Cuba, at any price. But in the eyes of the United States, a Cuban opposition government does not seem conducive immediately. Too many organizations would fight to govern, which have shown little unity spirit and the northern neighbor fears that the instability resulting from the struggle for power will affect them because of their proximity to their coasts. They prefers a gradual solution, which coincides with the interests of those who will inherit the socialist disaster, which pits a solution in stages.

It is of secondary importance who inherits the presidency or the vice presidency, who is designated by finger in the future as prime minister, whether they are descendants of Fidel or Raúl, whether they are unknown or not, everyone has in their minds the necessary changes that Fidel and Raul never wanted for your country, but that will happen expeditiously, as happened in the Soviet Union. A failed regime that was reissued on the island, losing 60 years and that will hardly recover for Cuba the dynamics of when it was a Republic, but that by stages will provide its people with the necessary stability to begin the long road of rebuilding.

 


 

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RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL
{09-29-2019}
 

IMPEACHMENT AGAINST DONALD TRUMP: TWO HYPOTHESES
Jorge Hernández Fonseca

In the United States, in the face of the 2020 elections, there is an Impeachment movement against the current president, partially officialized by the leader of the US Democratic Party. Logically, hypotheses have been made in this regard, based on the principle, "in politics, the important thing is what is not said." Personally I have two hypotheses, which I will expose, to follow this closely interesting and risky episode (for the Democrats).

It is not a secret for anyone, including Trump, that there will also be news of all kinds against the Democratic candidate who leads the nomination for election run by that party, Joe Biden, who is dragging his son in the debate, because somehow they were the origin of Trump's supposed “sins,” that resulted from a private telephone conversation with the president of Ukraine.

Both hypotheses originate with the question, to whom does this process suit? The first hypothesis immediately jumps: to the Democratic candidates who compete against Biden in the run for the primary elections. Trump hypothetically seems to be weakened with the impeachment - if he comes alive - Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders would be the main beneficiaries. By intuition I think that Sanders could be behind this strategy, because Biden would get “badly hurt” from the incident and Mrs. Warren has been very beaten by Trump.

The second hypothesis is based on the fact that it is practically impossible for Trump to be replaced from his position at the end of the process, because his party dominates the Senate vote, which is essential for pulling Trump out of the presidency. In that case and adding that hypothesis to the analysis, President Trump himself would have been the one who set up this "trap" for the Democrats. Indeed, the process is going to involve Trump, but he has Biden and his son as co-participants, with accusations that seems to be as, or more serious than, those made against the president.

Personally, I prefer the hypothesis that Trump was the origin of everything. First, the process would always end without his replacement for the reasons stated above and second, it is very suspicious and too casual, that everything came to the public at the time when the president of Ukraine was in the US and was able to appear with Trump before the press to exonerate him from the main charges. There will be a serious "shooting" of accusations between Trump and Biden during the impeachment, but, the most harmed would be Biden, because Trump will be ratified in his position.

Clear of the main obstacle that the Democrats have chosen to pull Trump from the presidency, and from the 2020 election contest, Trump has raised his reelection possibilities.

 

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