THE PROBABLE STAGES OF CUBa's future
Jorge Hernández Fonseca
Before the materialization on the island of an
attempt to model the continuity of the political, economic and
social cancer that Castroism has meant for the Cuban Nation, taking
hostage a patriotic date that is alien to it - on October 10 - I
want to expose my considerations on what will be in the future the
recognition of socialist failure, the defeat of the dictatorship and
the opening of the skies of the Fatherland to new economic, social
and political directions.
Tomorrow, October 10, nothing important will happen for the country.
The important thing will come with the physical disappearance of the
last Castro Ruz at the head of the country's destinations. Whoever
the designated successor may be (everyone on the island knows about
Castro's failure) there will be an initial stage of going to
capitalism in the economy, just as China and Viet Nam did before,
but without political freedom. However, during this first stage
Cubans can finally have breakfast, lunch and dinner. It is not all
that a good Cuban wants for his country, but it will be “the”
This stage will be welcomed by the United States, whoever is the
ruling president, because the US elite appreciates Cuba - in these
moments - much more its social stability than the change of its
political regime. Of course, the US would like a democracy on the
island, but in the face of current reality, it prefers the
maintenance of the internal "order" of Castroism and the containment
of proven crime, rather than the adventure of a power vacuum that
re-edit control of the country in Cuba that the narco has in Mexico
and Central America today.
Freedom and democracy for Cuba will come “over time” - as a second
stage - when the concepts associated with these values are conscious
in the minds of a people who today are forced only to think about
their livelihood, of some rulers who they have lost their way by
oppressing their fellow citizens to the limit, when the material
hardships of socialism are a sad memory and the guilt of Castroism
is part of reality.
Who writes these lines wishes for an immediate democratic future for
Cuba, at any price. But in the eyes of the United States, a Cuban
opposition government does not seem conducive immediately. Too many
organizations would fight to govern, which have shown little unity
spirit and the northern neighbor fears that the instability
resulting from the struggle for power will affect them because of
their proximity to their coasts. They prefers a gradual solution,
which coincides with the interests of those who will inherit the
socialist disaster, which pits a solution in stages.
It is of secondary importance who inherits the presidency or the
vice presidency, who is designated by finger in the future as prime
minister, whether they are descendants of Fidel or Raúl, whether
they are unknown or not, everyone has in their minds the necessary
changes that Fidel and Raul never wanted for your country, but that
will happen expeditiously, as happened in the Soviet Union. A failed
regime that was reissued on the island, losing 60 years and that
will hardly recover for Cuba the dynamics of when it was a Republic,
but that by stages will provide its people with the necessary
stability to begin the long road of rebuilding.
IMPEACHMENT AGAINST DONALD TRUMP: TWO
Jorge Hernández Fonseca
United States, in the face of the 2020 elections, there is an
Impeachment movement against the current president, partially
officialized by the leader of the US Democratic Party.
Logically, hypotheses have been made in this regard, based on the
principle, "in politics, the important thing is what is not said."
Personally I have two hypotheses, which I will expose, to follow
this closely interesting and risky episode (for the Democrats).
It is not a secret for anyone, including Trump, that there will also
be news of all kinds against the Democratic candidate who leads the
nomination for election run by that party, Joe Biden, who is dragging his
son in the debate, because somehow they were the origin of Trump's
supposed “sins,” that resulted from a private telephone conversation with the president of
Both hypotheses originate with the question, to whom does this
process suit? The first hypothesis immediately jumps: to the
Democratic candidates who compete against Biden in the run for the primary
elections. Trump hypothetically seems to be weakened with the
impeachment - if he comes alive - Elizabeth Warren and Bernie
Sanders would be the main beneficiaries. By intuition I think that
Sanders could be behind this strategy, because Biden would get
“badly hurt” from the incident and Mrs. Warren has been very beaten
The second hypothesis is based on the fact that it is practically
impossible for Trump to be replaced from his position at the end of
the process, because his party dominates the Senate vote, which is
essential for pulling Trump out of the presidency. In that case and
adding that hypothesis to the analysis, President Trump himself
would have been the one who set up this "trap" for the Democrats.
Indeed, the process is going to involve Trump, but he has Biden and
his son as co-participants, with accusations that seems to be as, or
more serious than, those made against the president.
Personally, I prefer the hypothesis that Trump was the origin of
everything. First, the process would always end without his
replacement for the reasons stated above and second, it is very
suspicious and too casual, that everything came to the public at the
time when the president of Ukraine was in the US and was able to
appear with Trump before the press to exonerate him from the main
charges. There will be a serious "shooting" of accusations between
Trump and Biden during the impeachment, but, the most harmed would
be Biden, because Trump will be ratified in his position.
Clear of the main obstacle that the Democrats have chosen to pull
Trump from the presidency, and from the 2020 election contest, Trump
has raised his reelection possibilities.