Jorge Hernández Fonseca

Before the materialization on the island of an attempt to model the continuity of the political, economic and social cancer that Castroism has meant for the Cuban Nation, taking hostage a patriotic date that is alien to it - on October 10 - I want to expose my considerations on what will be in the future the recognition of socialist failure, the defeat of the dictatorship and the opening of the skies of the Fatherland to new economic, social and political directions.

Tomorrow, October 10, nothing important will happen for the country. The important thing will come with the physical disappearance of the last Castro Ruz at the head of the country's destinations. Whoever the designated successor may be (everyone on the island knows about Castro's failure) there will be an initial stage of going to capitalism in the economy, just as China and Viet Nam did before, but without political freedom. However, during this first stage Cubans can finally have breakfast, lunch and dinner. It is not all that a good Cuban wants for his country, but it will be “the” beginning.

This stage will be welcomed by the United States, whoever is the ruling president, because the US elite appreciates Cuba - in these moments - much more its social stability than the change of its political regime. Of course, the US would like a democracy on the island, but in the face of current reality, it prefers the maintenance of the internal "order" of Castroism and the containment of proven crime, rather than the adventure of a power vacuum that re-edit control of the country in Cuba that the narco has in Mexico and Central America today.

Freedom and democracy for Cuba will come “over time” - as a second stage - when the concepts associated with these values are conscious in the minds of a people who today are forced only to think about their livelihood, of some rulers who they have lost their way by oppressing their fellow citizens to the limit, when the material hardships of socialism are a sad memory and the guilt of Castroism is part of reality.

Who writes these lines wishes for an immediate democratic future for Cuba, at any price. But in the eyes of the United States, a Cuban opposition government does not seem conducive immediately. Too many organizations would fight to govern, which have shown little unity spirit and the northern neighbor fears that the instability resulting from the struggle for power will affect them because of their proximity to their coasts. They prefers a gradual solution, which coincides with the interests of those who will inherit the socialist disaster, which pits a solution in stages.

It is of secondary importance who inherits the presidency or the vice presidency, who is designated by finger in the future as prime minister, whether they are descendants of Fidel or Raúl, whether they are unknown or not, everyone has in their minds the necessary changes that Fidel and Raul never wanted for your country, but that will happen expeditiously, as happened in the Soviet Union. A failed regime that was reissued on the island, losing 60 years and that will hardly recover for Cuba the dynamics of when it was a Republic, but that by stages will provide its people with the necessary stability to begin the long road of rebuilding.




Jorge Hernández Fonseca

In the United States, in the face of the 2020 elections, there is an Impeachment movement against the current president, partially officialized by the leader of the US Democratic Party. Logically, hypotheses have been made in this regard, based on the principle, "in politics, the important thing is what is not said." Personally I have two hypotheses, which I will expose, to follow this closely interesting and risky episode (for the Democrats).

It is not a secret for anyone, including Trump, that there will also be news of all kinds against the Democratic candidate who leads the nomination for election run by that party, Joe Biden, who is dragging his son in the debate, because somehow they were the origin of Trump's supposed “sins,” that resulted from a private telephone conversation with the president of Ukraine.

Both hypotheses originate with the question, to whom does this process suit? The first hypothesis immediately jumps: to the Democratic candidates who compete against Biden in the run for the primary elections. Trump hypothetically seems to be weakened with the impeachment - if he comes alive - Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders would be the main beneficiaries. By intuition I think that Sanders could be behind this strategy, because Biden would get “badly hurt” from the incident and Mrs. Warren has been very beaten by Trump.

The second hypothesis is based on the fact that it is practically impossible for Trump to be replaced from his position at the end of the process, because his party dominates the Senate vote, which is essential for pulling Trump out of the presidency. In that case and adding that hypothesis to the analysis, President Trump himself would have been the one who set up this "trap" for the Democrats. Indeed, the process is going to involve Trump, but he has Biden and his son as co-participants, with accusations that seems to be as, or more serious than, those made against the president.

Personally, I prefer the hypothesis that Trump was the origin of everything. First, the process would always end without his replacement for the reasons stated above and second, it is very suspicious and too casual, that everything came to the public at the time when the president of Ukraine was in the US and was able to appear with Trump before the press to exonerate him from the main charges. There will be a serious "shooting" of accusations between Trump and Biden during the impeachment, but, the most harmed would be Biden, because Trump will be ratified in his position.

Clear of the main obstacle that the Democrats have chosen to pull Trump from the presidency, and from the 2020 election contest, Trump has raised his reelection possibilities.