Is There A Cuban Rafter Crisis On THE Horizon?
US officials say the exodus is a lack of confidence in Raul Castro's government

     Under Cuban criminal law it is illegal for Cubans to leave their country or to assist others to leave without government permission. If apprehended, violators are subject to a prison term of one to ten years. Between 1959 and 1994, in defiance of the law, more than 63,000 citizens left Cuba by sea in small groups and reached the United States alive. Thousands more washed up in the Bahamas, the Cayman Islands and other Caribbean shores seeking freedom and liberty. Over the years, they have been collectively known as balseros (rafters) and their precarious vessels as balsas (rafts). At least 16,000 additional rafters did not survive the crossing.

    From the beginning of 1991 through July 1994 numbers of rafters rose steadily year by year until 500 were arriving daily during the first two weeks of July 1994. As the increase became public knowledge in Cuba, people began hijacking large government owned boats. In August 1994 three large boats were hijacked in a ten day period. Following the outbreak of citizen riots in the Malecon on August 5, Cuban dictator Fidel Castro announced that the Cuban Frontier Guard (the Cuban Coast Guard) would not enforce laws against leaving.  In response, 32,385 Cubans left from all parts of the island. Using the U.S. Coast Guard to intercept the rafters, the then  President Bill Clinton refused them entry, sending the rafters to the U.S. Naval Base at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba where they stayed behind wired fences until finally admitted to the United States in 1995.

    Recently, in an apparent lack of confidence in the leadership of the new dictator, Raul Castro, the number of Cubans leaving the island illegally by sea has been rising considerably.  The number of people attempting the perilous voyage across of the Florida Straits has risen 21 percent compared to the same period last year. The number intercepted by the Coast Guard increased 65 percent.  Since the beginning of October 2007, some 2,891 Cubans have attempted the journey across the straits. While 1,697 successfully reached the United States, 1,194 were intercepted at sea and returned to Cuba.  Nearly ten times the number intercepted--11,488--arrived at U.S. Southwest Customs and Border Patrol land ports in fiscal 2007. That number is likely to rise this fiscal year, which began Oct. 1.